Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16 propelled it to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a leading Elo score around 1505, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in blind human preference battles focused on reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks. A recent persistent memory upgrade further boosted its sustained performance, solidifying trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability as the best AI model by April 30. This reflects Anthropic's edge in scalable oversight and constitutional AI training amid intensifying competition. Realistic challenges include a last-minute rival model release—such as an unannounced GPT iteration—vaulting ahead via fresh arena battles before resolution, though no leaks or schedules suggest this is imminent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 99.6%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
Baidu <1%
$21,206,249 Vol.
$21,206,249 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
100%
OpenAI
<1%
xAI
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 99.6%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
Baidu <1%
$21,206,249 Vol.
$21,206,249 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
$1,992,041 Vol.
100%
OpenAI
$4,006,894 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$1,023,616 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,510,585 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$1,233,918 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$716,466 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,079,580 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$588,702 Vol.
<1%
$1,450,218 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$1,160,561 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$951,517 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$813,794 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,219,638 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$3,257,549 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$201,663 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16 propelled it to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a leading Elo score around 1505, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in blind human preference battles focused on reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks. A recent persistent memory upgrade further boosted its sustained performance, solidifying trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability as the best AI model by April 30. This reflects Anthropic's edge in scalable oversight and constitutional AI training amid intensifying competition. Realistic challenges include a last-minute rival model release—such as an unannounced GPT iteration—vaulting ahead via fresh arena battles before resolution, though no leaks or schedules suggest this is imminent.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$21,206,249Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16 propelled it to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a leading Elo score around 1505, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in blind human preference battles focused on reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks. A recent persistent memory upgrade further boosted its sustained performance, solidifying trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability as the best AI model by April 30. This reflects Anthropic's edge in scalable oversight and constitutional AI training amid intensifying competition. Realistic challenges include a last-minute rival model release—such as an unannounced GPT iteration—vaulting ahead via fresh arena battles before resolution, though no leaks or schedules suggest this is imminent.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$21,206,249Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16 propelled it to the top of the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard with a leading Elo score around 1505, surpassing OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro in blind human preference battles focused on reasoning, coding, and long-context tasks. A recent persistent memory upgrade further boosted its sustained performance, solidifying trader consensus at 99.6% implied probability as the best AI model by April 30. This reflects Anthropic's edge in scalable oversight and constitutional AI training amid intensifying competition. Realistic challenges include a last-minute rival model release—such as an unannounced GPT iteration—vaulting ahead via fresh arena battles before resolution, though no leaks or schedules suggest this is imminent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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