Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has solidified its position as the leading large language model on the LM Arena Chatbot Leaderboard with Style Control On, boasting a top Elo rating of around 1504 following its mid-April release, which propelled trader consensus to a 99.2% implied probability for Anthropic claiming #1 by April's end. This dominance stems from demonstrated superior reasoning, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified at 82%, and substantive content generation that outperforms rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 in crowd-sourced human evaluations, with no competing model releases in the past week narrowing the gap. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontier model launch from OpenAI or Google before resolution, though proximity to deadline and lack of announcements make upsets improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 99.3%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
xAI <1%
$2,004,714 Vol.
$2,004,714 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
99%
OpenAI
<1%
<1%
xAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Meta
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Anthropic 99.3%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
xAI <1%
$2,004,714 Vol.
$2,004,714 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Anthropic
$166,145 Vol.
99%
OpenAI
$235,319 Vol.
<1%
$226,483 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$227,897 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$140,153 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$80,848 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$118,134 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$34,730 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$45,324 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$86,407 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$61,138 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$90,867 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$129,060 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$39,510 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$322,734 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has solidified its position as the leading large language model on the LM Arena Chatbot Leaderboard with Style Control On, boasting a top Elo rating of around 1504 following its mid-April release, which propelled trader consensus to a 99.2% implied probability for Anthropic claiming #1 by April's end. This dominance stems from demonstrated superior reasoning, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified at 82%, and substantive content generation that outperforms rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 in crowd-sourced human evaluations, with no competing model releases in the past week narrowing the gap. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontier model launch from OpenAI or Google before resolution, though proximity to deadline and lack of announcements make upsets improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Volumen
$2,004,714Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has solidified its position as the leading large language model on the LM Arena Chatbot Leaderboard with Style Control On, boasting a top Elo rating of around 1504 following its mid-April release, which propelled trader consensus to a 99.2% implied probability for Anthropic claiming #1 by April's end. This dominance stems from demonstrated superior reasoning, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified at 82%, and substantive content generation that outperforms rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 in crowd-sourced human evaluations, with no competing model releases in the past week narrowing the gap. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontier model launch from OpenAI or Google before resolution, though proximity to deadline and lack of announcements make upsets improbable.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,004,714Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 has solidified its position as the leading large language model on the LM Arena Chatbot Leaderboard with Style Control On, boasting a top Elo rating of around 1504 following its mid-April release, which propelled trader consensus to a 99.2% implied probability for Anthropic claiming #1 by April's end. This dominance stems from demonstrated superior reasoning, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified at 82%, and substantive content generation that outperforms rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 in crowd-sourced human evaluations, with no competing model releases in the past week narrowing the gap. Realistic challenges include a last-minute frontier model launch from OpenAI or Google before resolution, though proximity to deadline and lack of announcements make upsets improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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