Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 and related frontier releases have driven the 85.5% market-implied odds for second-best model by end of June, as the versions lead or rank near the top of composite indices and benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GPQA in the latest available evaluations. Traders view these demonstrated capabilities in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as establishing a durable edge over most rivals, with little time remaining for disruptive new launches before the resolution date. Google’s Gemini 3.x variants hold an 11.5% share on the strength of specific reasoning wins and recent I/O updates, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 family sits at just 1.8% amid steady but less dominant leaderboard results. Overall sentiment reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing current released performance and competitive positioning rather than unverified future claims.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 86%
Google 12%
OpenAI 1.8%
DeepSeek <1%
$605,270 Vol.
$605,270 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
86%
12%
OpenAI
2%
DeepSeek
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 12%
OpenAI 1.8%
DeepSeek <1%
$605,270 Vol.
$605,270 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$42,428 Vol.
86%
$22,803 Vol.
12%
OpenAI
$51,695 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$262,421 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$26,940 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$27,935 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$51,785 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$20,373 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$11,217 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,035 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$19,743 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$14,677 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$13,343 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$13,633 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$11,243 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 and related frontier releases have driven the 85.5% market-implied odds for second-best model by end of June, as the versions lead or rank near the top of composite indices and benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GPQA in the latest available evaluations. Traders view these demonstrated capabilities in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as establishing a durable edge over most rivals, with little time remaining for disruptive new launches before the resolution date. Google’s Gemini 3.x variants hold an 11.5% share on the strength of specific reasoning wins and recent I/O updates, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 family sits at just 1.8% amid steady but less dominant leaderboard results. Overall sentiment reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing current released performance and competitive positioning rather than unverified future claims.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$605,270Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 and related frontier releases have driven the 85.5% market-implied odds for second-best model by end of June, as the versions lead or rank near the top of composite indices and benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GPQA in the latest available evaluations. Traders view these demonstrated capabilities in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as establishing a durable edge over most rivals, with little time remaining for disruptive new launches before the resolution date. Google’s Gemini 3.x variants hold an 11.5% share on the strength of specific reasoning wins and recent I/O updates, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 family sits at just 1.8% amid steady but less dominant leaderboard results. Overall sentiment reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing current released performance and competitive positioning rather than unverified future claims.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$605,270Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 and related frontier releases have driven the 85.5% market-implied odds for second-best model by end of June, as the versions lead or rank near the top of composite indices and benchmarks such as SWE-bench and GPQA in the latest available evaluations. Traders view these demonstrated capabilities in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks as establishing a durable edge over most rivals, with little time remaining for disruptive new launches before the resolution date. Google’s Gemini 3.x variants hold an 11.5% share on the strength of specific reasoning wins and recent I/O updates, while OpenAI’s GPT-5 family sits at just 1.8% amid steady but less dominant leaderboard results. Overall sentiment reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing current released performance and competitive positioning rather than unverified future claims.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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