Anthropic commands an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for holding the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 releases that have topped composite leaderboards like LMSys Arena and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with leading scores in reasoning, coding (SWE-bench), and overall quality. These models consistently outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic’s edge in capability demonstrations and iterative improvements. Google sits at 8.5% amid competitive but secondary Gemini performance, while OpenAI trails at 2.4% despite strong GPT releases. No major new launches are imminent before resolution, though any surprise capability jumps could still shift trader consensus in this closely watched frontier race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 90%
Google 9%
OpenAI 2.5%
DeepSeek <1%
$604,578 Vol.
$604,578 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
90%
9%
OpenAI
2%
DeepSeek
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 9%
OpenAI 2.5%
DeepSeek <1%
$604,578 Vol.
$604,578 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$42,133 Vol.
90%
$22,411 Vol.
9%
OpenAI
$51,695 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$262,421 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$26,940 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$27,933 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$51,782 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$20,373 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$11,217 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,035 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$19,743 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$14,677 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$13,343 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$13,633 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$11,243 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for holding the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 releases that have topped composite leaderboards like LMSys Arena and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with leading scores in reasoning, coding (SWE-bench), and overall quality. These models consistently outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic’s edge in capability demonstrations and iterative improvements. Google sits at 8.5% amid competitive but secondary Gemini performance, while OpenAI trails at 2.4% despite strong GPT releases. No major new launches are imminent before resolution, though any surprise capability jumps could still shift trader consensus in this closely watched frontier race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$604,578Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for holding the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 releases that have topped composite leaderboards like LMSys Arena and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with leading scores in reasoning, coding (SWE-bench), and overall quality. These models consistently outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic’s edge in capability demonstrations and iterative improvements. Google sits at 8.5% amid competitive but secondary Gemini performance, while OpenAI trails at 2.4% despite strong GPT releases. No major new launches are imminent before resolution, though any surprise capability jumps could still shift trader consensus in this closely watched frontier race.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$604,578Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands an overwhelming 89.5% implied probability for holding the second-best AI model by end of June 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 releases that have topped composite leaderboards like LMSys Arena and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with leading scores in reasoning, coding (SWE-bench), and overall quality. These models consistently outpace OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 variants and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in head-to-head benchmarks, reflecting Anthropic’s edge in capability demonstrations and iterative improvements. Google sits at 8.5% amid competitive but secondary Gemini performance, while OpenAI trails at 2.4% despite strong GPT releases. No major new launches are imminent before resolution, though any surprise capability jumps could still shift trader consensus in this closely watched frontier race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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