Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants dominating current top rankings with Elo scores above 1500 as of late April. Anthropic's aggressive bi-weekly release cadence since January—featuring agentic coding advances and reliability gains—has solidified its competitive edge over rivals, even as OpenAI rolled out GPT-5.5 on April 23 and Google teased next-gen Gemini upgrades on April 26 amid hints of a May launch. Google (14.5%) and OpenAI (10.8%) trail due to slower iteration, while xAI's Grok 5 hype (3.3%) hinges on unproven Colossus training claims; key swing factors include May-June frontier model drops and benchmark volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 58%
Google 14%
OpenAI 10.9%
xAI 3.3%
$370,582 Vol.
$370,582 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
58%
14%
OpenAI
11%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Meta
2%
Z.ai
2%
Alibaba
1%
Amazon
1%
Moonshot
1%
ByteDance
1%
Baidu
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 58%
Google 14%
OpenAI 10.9%
xAI 3.3%
$370,582 Vol.
$370,582 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Anthropic
$8,820 Vol.
58%
$5,261 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$34,473 Vol.
11%
xAI
$13,545 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$247,220 Vol.
3%
Meta
$3,686 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$7,302 Vol.
2%
Alibaba
$4,501 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$1,436 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$3,611 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$1,371 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$2,728 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$2,709 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$32,690 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,235 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants dominating current top rankings with Elo scores above 1500 as of late April. Anthropic's aggressive bi-weekly release cadence since January—featuring agentic coding advances and reliability gains—has solidified its competitive edge over rivals, even as OpenAI rolled out GPT-5.5 on April 23 and Google teased next-gen Gemini upgrades on April 26 amid hints of a May launch. Google (14.5%) and OpenAI (10.8%) trail due to slower iteration, while xAI's Grok 5 hype (3.3%) hinges on unproven Colossus training claims; key swing factors include May-June frontier model drops and benchmark volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$370,582Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants dominating current top rankings with Elo scores above 1500 as of late April. Anthropic's aggressive bi-weekly release cadence since January—featuring agentic coding advances and reliability gains—has solidified its competitive edge over rivals, even as OpenAI rolled out GPT-5.5 on April 23 and Google teased next-gen Gemini upgrades on April 26 amid hints of a May launch. Google (14.5%) and OpenAI (10.8%) trail due to slower iteration, while xAI's Grok 5 hype (3.3%) hinges on unproven Colossus training claims; key swing factors include May-June frontier model drops and benchmark volatility.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$370,582Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 57% implied probability to Anthropic securing the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants dominating current top rankings with Elo scores above 1500 as of late April. Anthropic's aggressive bi-weekly release cadence since January—featuring agentic coding advances and reliability gains—has solidified its competitive edge over rivals, even as OpenAI rolled out GPT-5.5 on April 23 and Google teased next-gen Gemini upgrades on April 26 amid hints of a May launch. Google (14.5%) and OpenAI (10.8%) trail due to slower iteration, while xAI's Grok 5 hype (3.3%) hinges on unproven Colossus training claims; key swing factors include May-June frontier model drops and benchmark volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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