Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 70.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release that propelled it to the top of the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard with 1504 Elo and leading scores on SWE-bench Verified (82%). This frontier large language model excels in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, widening its lead over competitors amid sparse new releases. Google trails at 25.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's strong multimodal benchmarks, positioning it as the chief challenger, while OpenAI's GPT-5.x lags due to recent stagnation. Upcoming catalysts include potential pre-May 31 announcements from labs, though Anthropic's momentum suggests sustained dominance barring surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 71%
Google 26%
OpenAI 3.5%
xAI 1.1%
$1,899,307 Vol.
$1,899,307 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
71%
26%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 71%
Google 26%
OpenAI 3.5%
xAI 1.1%
$1,899,307 Vol.
$1,899,307 Vol.
31 may 2026
Anthropic
$153,761 Vol.
71%
$133,342 Vol.
26%
OpenAI
$221,446 Vol.
3%
xAI
$132,411 Vol.
1%
Meta
$110,217 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$110,974 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$118,889 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$129,842 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$149,466 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$117,147 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$96,797 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$116,140 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$89,659 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$105,353 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$116,661 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 70.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release that propelled it to the top of the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard with 1504 Elo and leading scores on SWE-bench Verified (82%). This frontier large language model excels in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, widening its lead over competitors amid sparse new releases. Google trails at 25.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's strong multimodal benchmarks, positioning it as the chief challenger, while OpenAI's GPT-5.x lags due to recent stagnation. Upcoming catalysts include potential pre-May 31 announcements from labs, though Anthropic's momentum suggests sustained dominance barring surprises.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Volumen
$1,899,307Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 70.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release that propelled it to the top of the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard with 1504 Elo and leading scores on SWE-bench Verified (82%). This frontier large language model excels in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, widening its lead over competitors amid sparse new releases. Google trails at 25.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's strong multimodal benchmarks, positioning it as the chief challenger, while OpenAI's GPT-5.x lags due to recent stagnation. Upcoming catalysts include potential pre-May 31 announcements from labs, though Anthropic's momentum suggests sustained dominance barring surprises.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$1,899,307Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 70.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of May, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's mid-April release that propelled it to the top of the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard with 1504 Elo and leading scores on SWE-bench Verified (82%). This frontier large language model excels in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, widening its lead over competitors amid sparse new releases. Google trails at 25.5% on Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's strong multimodal benchmarks, positioning it as the chief challenger, while OpenAI's GPT-5.x lags due to recent stagnation. Upcoming catalysts include potential pre-May 31 announcements from labs, though Anthropic's momentum suggests sustained dominance barring surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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