Recent statements from the Kremlin confirm that mediation efforts on Ukraine remain on hold, with no plans for a Trump-Putin telephone call or in-person engagement before late June 2026. U.S. negotiators continue lower-level contacts with both sides, but no summit dates or venues have been set. This diplomatic pause, following the 2025 Alaska meeting, underpins the market's strong consensus around no encounter by the resolution deadline. A breakthrough in stalled Ukraine talks or an unscheduled bilateral session on the margins of the G7 could still shift odds, though official signals point to limited near-term momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo confirmed meeting between Trump and Putin by June 30, 2026
No meeting by June 30 rises to 98%4%
Despite ongoing diplomatic communications and proposals, no in-person meeting with direct interaction between Trump and Putin occurred by the market's resolution date, leading to near certainty of the "No meeting by June 30" outcome.
Kremlin says no plans for Putin-Trump call or meeting soon
No meeting by June 30 rises to 97%2%
On June 9, 2026, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated there were no plans for a telephone call or meeting between Trump and Putin, confirming the market's strong expectation that no meeting would occur by June 30.
Trump says Zelenskyy-Putin meeting would be 'great' after Ukraine president's letter
No meeting by June 30 rises to 92%1%
On June 5, 2026, Trump expressed support for a potential meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, taking credit for encouraging talks. However, no direct Trump-Putin meeting was announced, sustaining market belief in no meeting by June 30.
Trump supports possible meeting between Zelensky and Putin
No meeting by June 30 rises to 92%1%
Trump publicly expressed support for direct talks between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin, calling it a positive step toward conflict resolution. However, this statement did not indicate a meeting between Trump and Putin, reinforcing the market's view that no such meeting would occur by June 30.
Trump doubts Putin will attend Miami G‑20
No meeting by June 30 rises to 94%2%
A minor uptick in “No meeting” as analysts noted Trump’s public doubts about Putin accepting a G‑20 invitation, pushing the market toward the no‑meeting endpoint.
Putin and Xi Jinping hold joint press statement in Beijing
No meeting by June 30 rises to 83%4%
Putin and Xi Jinping delivered a joint press statement and signed cooperation documents in Beijing, emphasizing strategic partnership. The event contrasted with Trump’s separate visit and did not include a Trump-Putin meeting, sustaining market consensus of no meeting by June 30.
Putin visits Beijing days after Trump, meets Xi Jinping
China dips to 0%2%
Vladimir Putin arrived in China shortly after Trump’s visit, receiving a similar ceremonial welcome and meeting Xi Jinping, highlighting Beijing’s role as a diplomatic pivot but no Trump-Putin meeting.
Putin meets Xi Jinping in Beijing shortly after Trump’s visit
No meeting by June 30 rises to 95%2%
Putin’s visit to Beijing for talks with Xi Jinping, arranged soon after Trump’s summit with Xi, underscored the strong China-Russia relationship and contrasted with the absence of a Trump-Putin meeting, supporting market consensus for no meeting by June 30.
Putin visits China days after Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 rises to 95%3%
Putin visited China shortly after Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping, highlighting Putin’s focus on strategic partnerships rather than a meeting with Trump, reinforcing market expectations of no Trump-Putin meeting.
Trump and Putin welcomed separately in Beijing
No meeting by June 30 surges to 88%18%
The Guardian described simultaneous high‑profile welcomes for Trump and Putin in Beijing, highlighting that the two leaders were not meeting each other, which bolstered confidence in a “No meeting” outcome.
Putin meets Xi in Beijing on May 20, 2026
Other plunges to 0%49%
Putin travelled to Beijing for a two‑day summit with Xi Jinping, confirming his presence outside Russia and reducing the likelihood of a near‑term US‑Russia meeting, which helped keep the "No meeting" price near its peak.
Putin Visits Xi Jinping in China Days After Trump Summit
No meeting by June 30 dips to 63%4%
Putin's visit to China shortly after Trump's summit with Xi Jinping raised speculation about China as a diplomatic hub but did not indicate a Trump-Putin meeting, reducing market confidence in a meeting in Russia or China.
Putin heads to Beijing days after Trump’s China visit
No meeting by June 30 surges to 74%16%
CNBC reported that Putin travelled to Beijing a few days after Trump’s state visit, signalling no near‑term joint meeting with Trump and strengthening the “No meeting” consensus.
Putin visits Beijing days after Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 93%11%
Putin held a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping shortly after Trump’s visit to Beijing, highlighting China’s role as a key ally and shifting diplomatic focus away from a Trump-Putin meeting, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Putin visits China days after Trump, highlighting close ties with Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 dips to 79%4%
Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing for a state visit shortly after Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping, underscoring strong China-Russia relations but no direct meeting with Trump, which kept market expectations for a Trump-Putin meeting low.
Putin and Xi Jinping hold summit in Beijing after Trump’s visit
Putin’s visit to Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping occurred just days after Trump’s own meeting with Xi, reinforcing China’s role as a diplomatic hub. Despite the proximity of these visits, no direct meeting between Trump and Putin took place, which influenced the market to further discount the likelihood of their meeting.
Putin visits Beijing for summit with Xi Jinping days after Trump
No meeting by June 30 rises to 88%3%
On May 19-20, 2026, Putin visited Beijing shortly after Trump's visit, meeting Xi Jinping. The visits were back-to-back but no direct meeting between Trump and Putin took place, which the market interpreted as a sign no meeting would occur soon.
Trump visits Beijing for summit with Xi Jinping
China plunges to 2%47%
Donald Trump visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, receiving a lavish welcome but achieving few concrete breakthroughs, signaling separate diplomatic tracks from Putin.
Trump visits China for summit with Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 rises to 83%4%
Donald Trump held a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, focusing on trade and cooperation. This visit was separate from Putin’s and did not include a Trump-Putin meeting, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Trump visits Beijing for summit with Xi Jinping
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 85%6%
Between May 13-15, 2026, Trump visited Beijing and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, receiving a grand welcome. This visit was closely followed by Putin's visit but no meeting between Trump and Putin occurred, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting.
Kremlin confirms invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
The Kremlin spokesman stated that Putin would gladly welcome Trump to Moscow, keeping the possibility of a meeting in Russia alive but without confirmation of a scheduled meeting.
Kremlin confirms invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
No meeting by June 30 rises to 94%2%
The Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov affirmed that Putin's invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open, but no meeting was scheduled. This maintained market expectations that no meeting would occur by June 30.
Kremlin confirms Putin’s open invitation for Trump to visit Moscow
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov affirmed that Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Russia remains open, but no meeting was scheduled, maintaining market expectations that no meeting would occur by June 30.
Kremlin says Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated that Putin’s invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remained open, keeping the prospect of a US‑Russia meeting alive and nudging the "Other" and "Russia" prices marginally upward.
Kremlin confirms Putin's open invitation for Trump to visit Moscow
The Kremlin reiterated that Putin would welcome Trump to Moscow, keeping the possibility of a meeting in Russia open, though no meeting took place by June 30, 2026.
Kremlin says invitation for Trump to visit Moscow remains open
Russia dips to 1%3%
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Putin's invitation for Trump to visit Russia remains open, though no dates or concrete plans have been set, keeping the probability of a meeting in Russia very low.
Trump’s Greenland envoy sparks speculation about Middle‑East diplomatic moves
A brief surge in price fluctuation was linked to speculation that a secret meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country after Trump’s envoy to Greenland hinted at renewed Middle‑East outreach, but no concrete evidence emerged.
US jobs report shows strong hiring despite Iran war
No meeting by June 30 surges to 89%19%
Robust US employment data improved domestic economic confidence in Trump’s leadership, indirectly supporting the “No meeting” outlook as market participants focused on domestic issues.
Trump Announces Three-Day Ceasefire in Ukraine-Russia War
No meeting by June 30 rises to 82%2%
President Trump announced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, agreed upon by Putin and Zelensky, signaling diplomatic engagement but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, impacting market expectations toward no meeting.
Trump says he discussed Ukraine ceasefire with Putin
Other rises to 4%2%
Trump announced a phone call discussing a Ukraine cease‑fire, raising speculation of a future face‑to‑face meeting and causing a modest rise in the “Other” price.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine and Iran
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 69%7%
Putin and Trump engaged in a lengthy phone call discussing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, including a proposed temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. This phone interaction underscored ongoing communication but did not translate into an in-person meeting, maintaining market skepticism about a direct encounter.
Trump‑Putin phone call after Davos Board of Peace event
Russia dips to 28%4%
Following the Board of Peace signing, Trump and Putin spoke on the phone, reviving speculation of a meeting but without concrete plans, causing a modest rise in the Russia outcome.
Trump to invite Putin to December G‑20 summit in Miami
United States plunges to 0%49%
Trump indicated he would invite Putin to the G‑20 summit in Miami in December 2026, reviving expectations of a future meeting and slightly lifting the "United States" and "Other" probabilities while the "No meeting" price steadied.
Trump intends to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami in December
Reports emerged that Trump planned to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, raising market speculation about a possible meeting in the United States, though Trump expressed doubts about Putin's attendance.
Trump intends to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami
No meeting by June 30 rises to 92%2%
Trump announced plans to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026, raising market speculation about a possible meeting. However, Trump expressed doubts about Putin's attendance, limiting market confidence in the event.
US to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami, Trump doubts attendance
No meeting by June 30 dips to 1%1%
The US announced plans to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026, hosted by Trump, signaling potential future engagement though Trump expressed skepticism about Putin's attendance.
Trump plans to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami
No meeting by June 30 rises to 83%3%
Trump announced intentions to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December 2026, raising speculation about a possible meeting, but no confirmation of a direct Trump-Putin meeting emerged.
Trump plans to invite Putin to G20 summit in Miami in December
Trump announced intentions to invite Putin to the G20 summit in Miami, raising speculation of a possible meeting there, but Putin's attendance remained uncertain, limiting market impact on meeting location probabilities.
Trump rolls out his Board of Peace at Davos, invites Putin without confirming attendance
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 89%9%
Trump’s declaration at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he was rolling out a “Board of Peace” and that Putin had been invited but not yet responded reinforced expectations that a direct meeting was unlikely before June 30.
Belarusian President Lukashenko signals readiness for deal involving US and Belarus
Belarus dips to 1%1%
Lukashenko, a close Putin ally, expressed readiness for a deal involving the US and Belarus, suggesting potential diplomatic channels involving Belarus as a meeting location, though no meeting occurred.
Trump announces three‑day ceasefire in Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 surges to 70%25%
A US‑brokered ceasefire reduced immediate war pressure, but the lack of a concrete peace deal lowered expectations of a Trump‑Putin meeting, pushing the market toward “No meeting.”
Trump‑Xi summit held in Beijing
China plunges to 5%15%
The actual Trump‑Xi meeting confirmed Beijing as the venue for the highest‑level US‑China dialogue, virtually eliminating the China outcome and boosting the “No meeting” probability.
Trump and Putin hold first phone call of 2026 discussing Middle East and Ukraine
Trump initiated a businesslike and constructive phone call with Putin, discussing peace prospects but no in-person meeting was arranged, keeping market expectations for a meeting low.
Trump and Putin hold phone call to discuss Iran war and Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 rises to 64%4%
On March 9, 2026, Trump and Putin had a phone call discussing the war in Iran and Ukraine, indicating ongoing communication but no in-person meeting. This maintained market uncertainty about a physical meeting.
Trump‑Putin meeting rumored at Gulf summit in Doha
Gulf country drops to 30%8%
Leaks suggested a possible Trump‑Putin encounter at a Gulf Cooperation Council summit, briefly raising the Gulf‑country outcome.
Putin arrives in New Delhi on a state visit aimed at bolstering Russia‑India ties
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 80%7%
A report that Putin was visiting India for a state visit was interpreted as a sign that his diplomatic itinerary was full, reducing the likelihood of a Trump‑Putin meeting and pushing the “no meeting” price higher.
Trump and Putin discuss Iran war and other issues in phone call
No meeting by June 30 rises to 62%4%
A phone conversation between Trump and Putin covered the war in Iran and other international issues, indicating ongoing communication but no scheduled in-person meeting.
Trump discusses potential trilateral meeting with Zelenskyy including Putin
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 59%5%
On February 25, 2026, Trump told Zelenskyy he wanted the war to end within a month and discussed a possible trilateral meeting with Putin. This raised market hopes for a meeting but no concrete plans emerged, keeping probabilities moderate.
China reports 14.1% jump in April exports ahead of Trump‑Xi summit
China drops to 20%10%
Strong Chinese export data boosted confidence in a Beijing meeting, further collapsing the China outcome probability.
US‑Russia New START treaty limits reaffirmed by Russia
Russia drops to 32%6%
Russia’s pledge to honor New START if the US does so reduced immediate nuclear tensions, slightly improving the prospect of a meeting in Russia.
Analysis shows Putin dominated 2025 Alaska summit with Trump
A nonverbal analysis of the August 2025 Alaska summit revealed Putin dominated the interaction, suggesting a power imbalance and limited progress, which may have influenced market skepticism about future meetings.
Putin envoy Kirill Dmitriev visits US for talks with Trump administration
No meeting by June 30 dips to 2%1%
Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's special envoy, traveled to the US to meet with members of Trump's administration to discuss peace agreements on Ukraine and economic cooperation, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no confirmed meeting between the leaders.
Three-way Ukraine peace talks held in Abu Dhabi with Trump’s envoy present
High-level negotiator talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the US, with Trump’s envoy present, indicated ongoing diplomatic efforts but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, reinforcing market expectations of no meeting by June 30.
Trump’s envoys meet Putin in Moscow for overnight Ukraine peace talks
No meeting by June 30 dips to 30%1%
Trump’s representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Putin in Moscow for extensive talks on Ukraine peace, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, keeping market expectations low for a meeting location.
Putin meets Trump’s envoys in Moscow for Ukraine peace talks
Russian President Putin met with Trump’s special envoys in Moscow to discuss Ukraine peace proposals, emphasizing territorial issues as a key obstacle. This indirect engagement suggested no immediate Trump-Putin meeting, supporting market expectations for no meeting by June 30.
Kremlin confirms Dec 29 Trump‑Putin phone call
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 58%12%
Kremlin aide Ushakov confirmed a telephone conversation between Putin and Trump on Dec 29 2025, reinforcing that no in‑person meeting had occurred and pushing “No meeting” higher.
Trump says Putin and he had a two‑hour call and are getting closer to a deal
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 62%5%
Trump announced on Air Force One that he had spoken with Putin for over two hours and that both leaders were “getting a lot closer,” reviving speculation of an imminent meeting and causing a temporary dip in the no‑meeting price.
Putin and Trump hold constructive phone conversation
Putin and Trump had a businesslike and constructive phone call, continuing diplomatic dialogue but without announcing a meeting, keeping market expectations for a meeting low.
Trump hosts Board of Peace signing ceremony in Davos
Russia drops to 38%7%
The high‑profile event brought many world leaders together, including an invitation to Putin, reviving speculation of a Trump‑Putin meeting in a neutral venue and lifting the Russia outcome slightly.
Putin aide Ushakov describes Trump-Putin call as businesslike and constructive
No meeting by June 30 dips to 29%3%
A telephone conversation between Trump and Putin was described as frank and constructive by Putin’s aide Ushakov, indicating ongoing dialogue but no scheduled meeting, supporting market expectations of no imminent meeting.
Trump meets Zelenskyy, expresses optimism for peace deal involving Putin
No meeting by June 30 rises to 35%3%
Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy raised hopes for a peace deal that would require Putin’s agreement, but no direct Trump-Putin meeting was reported, sustaining market skepticism.
Trump and Putin hold productive phone call before Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 34%5%
Trump reported a very productive call with Putin ahead of his meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, maintaining diplomatic dialogue but no in-person meeting.
Trump meets Zelenskyy in Florida after call with Putin
No meeting by June 30 surges to 58%28%
Trump hosted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Florida following a lengthy phone call with Putin, highlighting Trump's ongoing mediation efforts but no direct Trump-Putin meeting, sustaining market expectations of no meeting.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 45%10%
Putin’s hard‑line statement after stalled U.S.‑led peace talks suggested a deteriorating diplomatic climate, pushing the market back toward a “No meeting” outlook.
Trump and Putin hold lengthy phone conversation signaling diplomatic thaw
No meeting by June 30 rises to 31%1%
Trump and Putin spoke for over two hours on the phone, agreeing to establish working groups on security and economic cooperation, signaling a possible thaw but no in-person meeting was scheduled, maintaining market uncertainty.
Trump says phone call with Putin was ‘excellent’
Other jumps to 8%5%
Trump claimed a “great progress” phone call with Putin, briefly reviving expectations of a meeting and nudging the “Other” price upward before the market re‑asserted the likelihood of no face‑to‑face encounter.
Trump holds phone call with Putin after meeting Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago
No meeting by June 30 surges to 58%24%
Trump spoke with Putin for over two hours following a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, keeping diplomatic channels open but yielding no immediate plans for an in-person summit.
Trump meets Zelenskyy at Mar-a-Lago amid ongoing talks with Putin
No meeting by June 30 rises to 32%3%
Trump hosted Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Florida while continuing talks with Putin, reflecting complex diplomacy but no direct Trump-Putin meeting. This maintained market uncertainty but did not revive meeting expectations.
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner hold marathon talks with Putin in Moscow
No meeting by June 30 surges to 56%24%
U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner met with Putin in Moscow for marathon talks, confirming that no direct Trump‑Putin meeting was scheduled and pushing the market back toward a “no meeting” outlook.
Trump‑Xi summit scheduled in Beijing
China plunges to 30%19%
News that Trump would meet Xi in Beijing heightened expectations of a China venue for a Trump‑Putin encounter, sharply reducing the China outcome probability.
Trump envoys meet Putin in Moscow, report 'reasonably good meeting'
Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Putin in Moscow, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement despite no direct Trump-Putin meeting, which maintained market uncertainty.
Trump’s envoys meet Putin in Kremlin for talks on Ukraine ceasefire
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 29%9%
Trump’s representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Putin in Moscow for around five hours, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement but no confirmed meeting between Trump and Putin.
Trump announces framework for Greenland deal, drops NATO tariff threat
Other EU country drops to 40%6%
The announcement shifted attention to the Arctic and reduced pressure on European allies, lowering the perceived need for a Trump‑Putin meeting in Europe and nudging the market toward a Gulf or Russia outcome.
Putin arrives in India for state visit
Gulf country drops to 38%8%
Putin’s India trip was seen as a signal that he was focusing on non‑Western partners, increasing speculation that a Trump‑Putin meeting could be arranged in a Gulf country during the visit.
US cancels Budapest summit after Russia's hardline demands on Ukraine
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 50%12%
Following Russia's firm stance on territorial concessions and other demands, the US cancelled the planned Budapest summit. This reinforced market skepticism about any near-term meeting between Trump and Putin.
Trump cancels planned Budapest summit with Putin due to stalled negotiations
Other EU country plunges to 0%44%
Trump cancelled the planned Budapest meeting after Russia refused to soften its maximalist positions on Ukraine, causing a sharp drop in the probability of a meeting in Hungary and other EU countries.
Trump cancels planned Budapest summit with Putin after talks stall
No meeting by June 30 surges to 96%61%
The Budapest summit was cancelled after negotiations stalled, eliminating the prospect of a second meeting and causing the "No meeting by June 30" price to jump toward its final level.
Trump cancels Budapest meeting with Putin over stalled negotiations
Other EU country plunges to 16%27%
Trump announced the cancellation of the planned Budapest summit due to Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, leading to a sharp market decline for the Budapest meeting outcome.
Trump cancels proposed Budapest summit with Putin over stalled talks
No meeting by June 30 surges to 34%21%
Donald Trump announced the cancellation of the planned Budapest summit, citing Russia's refusal to back down from its maximalist claims on Ukraine. This dashed hopes of an imminent meeting, causing the 'No meeting' option to rise.
Trump cancels Budapest meeting with Putin over stalled negotiations
Other plunges to 5%15%
Trump announced the cancellation of the planned Budapest summit due to Russia's refusal to back down on maximalist claims, causing market confidence in a meeting in Hungary to collapse.
Trump cancels planned Budapest meeting with Putin
No meeting by June 30 drops to 3%12%
Trump announced the cancellation of the planned Budapest summit due to Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, causing market expectations for a meeting to collapse.
Trump cancels Budapest summit with Putin
No meeting by June 30 plunges to 0%45%
Trump cancelled the planned Budapest summit, citing Putin’s refusal to compromise, driving the “Other EU country” price to zero and boosting confidence in “No meeting”.
Planned second Trump-Putin summit in Budapest canceled due to stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 drops to 35%14%
The planned summit in Budapest was called off as Russia refused to budge from its maximalist positions on Ukraine, leading to a collapse in market expectations for a meeting in Hungary or elsewhere.
White House says no plans for immediate Trump-Putin meeting
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 20%7%
Following initial announcements, the White House officially stated there were no plans for a Trump-Putin meeting in the immediate future, signaling the cancellation of the Budapest summit and causing market prices for a meeting to drop.
Second Trump-Putin summit called off amid diplomatic impasse
Reports confirmed the second summit between Trump and Putin was off due to Russia's maximalist positions, reinforcing market expectations that no further meetings would occur soon.
Trump-Putin Budapest summit canceled due to stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 rises to 35%3%
Plans for the Budapest summit were called off as Russia refused to budge on maximalist demands, leading to a collapse in market confidence for a meeting in Hungary or elsewhere.
Trump-Putin Budapest summit cancelled due to stalled negotiations
No meeting by June 30 drops to 20%9%
The planned Budapest summit was called off as Russia refused to budge from maximalist positions on Ukraine, leading to a collapse in market expectations for a meeting in Hungary or elsewhere soon.
White House says no immediate plans for Trump-Putin meeting, Budapest summit off
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 38%10%
A White House official announced that the planned Budapest summit was cancelled due to stalled negotiations and Russia's refusal to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, leading to a sharp drop in market expectations for a meeting in Hungary or Russia.
Trump cancels second meeting with Putin in Budapest due to stalled negotiations
Turkey drops to 1%9%
Plans for the Budapest summit were cancelled as Russia refused to back down from maximalist claims on Ukraine, causing market confidence in a meeting in Turkey to collapse further.
Trump-Putin second summit in Budapest called off amid Russian refusal to budge
No meeting by June 30 surges to 35%20%
Plans for a second summit between Trump and Putin in Budapest were cancelled due to Russia's refusal to compromise on key issues related to Ukraine, causing a sharp drop in market prices for a meeting in Other EU country and increasing the probability of no meeting by June 30.
Trump announces plans to meet Putin in Budapest within two weeks
Other drops to 12%8%
Following a lengthy phone call, Donald Trump announced a proposed summit with Vladimir Putin in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This sparked a brief surge in expectations for a meeting in a third country ('Other').
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest
No meeting by June 30 drops to 15%5%
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced plans for a second summit in Budapest within two weeks to discuss the Ukraine war, raising market expectations for another meeting.
Trump announces planned Budapest summit with Putin after productive call
Other surges to 28%15%
Following a two-hour phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. This announcement caused a spike in market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks
No meeting by June 30 surges to 29%16%
Following a two-hour phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss the Ukraine war. This raised market expectations for a meeting, reflected in price movements, but the summit was later cancelled due to stalled negotiations.
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest within two weeks
Other plunges to 20%29%
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced plans for a summit in Budapest to discuss ending the Ukraine war, boosting market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest
Other plunges to 18%31%
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a summit in Budapest within two weeks to discuss Ukraine, raising market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump says a second summit with Putin will be in Budapest within two weeks
Other plunges to 0%49%
Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest, Hungary, to be held within two weeks, raising expectations of a second meeting and pushing the "Other" and "Turkey" prices lower while the "No meeting" price rose as the market priced the risk of cancellation.
Trump announces Budapest summit with Putin
Other EU country jumps to 45%13%
Trump announced a second summit in Budapest, Hungary, within two weeks, reviving market hopes for a meeting and causing the “Other EU country” price to spike briefly.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks
Other EU country dips to 44%2%
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss the Ukraine war. This raised market expectations for a meeting in Hungary, temporarily increasing the Budapest meeting probability.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks
Following a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest to discuss the Ukraine war, raising market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest to discuss Ukraine war
Other EU country plunges to 20%26%
President Trump announced a planned summit with President Putin in Budapest to discuss ending the Ukraine war, raising market expectations for a meeting in a Gulf country or Other EU country. This announcement increased the perceived likelihood of a meeting occurring within the market timeframe.
Trump announces planned Budapest summit with Putin
After a lengthy phone call with Putin, Trump announced a planned summit in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the Ukraine war, raising market expectations for a meeting in Hungary.
Trump announces planned meeting with Putin in Budapest to discuss Ukraine war
Turkey plunges to 10%36%
Following a lengthy phone call, Trump announced a planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks to continue discussions on ending the Ukraine war, raising market expectations for a meeting in Turkey (Hungary).
Trump‑Putin phone call discussed cease‑fire in Kyiv
Russia drops to 45%11%
President Trump said he secured a one‑week pause on Russian strikes on Kyiv after a phone call with Putin, raising hopes of direct talks and moving the market away from a Gulf‑state meeting toward a possible Russia meeting.
Revelation of Secret Phone Calls Between Trump and Putin
No meeting by June 30 dips to 32%3%
Bob Woodward's book revealed secret phone calls between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, fueling speculation about their communications but not confirming any in-person meeting, which influenced early market uncertainty.
Trump says he asked Putin not to target Kyiv for one week during brutal cold spell
No meeting by June 30 rises to 31%2%
Trump publicly claimed that Putin had agreed not to target Kyiv for a week during a severe cold spell, signalling a direct communication line between the two leaders and fuelling market expectations of a forthcoming meeting.
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