Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 (91.8%) amid the absence of any confirmed bilateral summit plans, despite a recent phone call on April 29 where the leaders discussed Ukraine ceasefire prospects and Iran tensions, marking their first direct contact this year. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated mid-April there are "no such plans at the moment," reinforcing logistical and diplomatic hurdles like security arrangements, ongoing Ukraine peace talks stalemate, and mutual travel constraints. Reports of a potential U.S. invitation to Putin for a G20 summit in Miami remain unconfirmed and likely post-June. Scenarios to shift odds include a sudden neutral-site announcement (e.g., Turkey, Switzerland), accelerated Ukraine negotiations prompting urgency, or concurrent China visits evolving into a rendezvous, though historical post-2025 summit gaps suggest inertia prevails.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMarket trough to 1% follows no concrete developments and repeated statements from US and Russian officials that no meeting is imminent, reflecting market consensus that a Russia
Russia dips to 1%3%
Market trough to 1% follows no concrete developments and repeated statements from US and Russian officials that no meeting is imminent, reflecting market consensus that a Russia meeting is unlikely
Kremlin confirms contacts between Russian and US officials on a US peace proposal, with Putin reportedly open to territorial swaps but insisting on retaining Donbas, reflecting
Russia dips to 6%1%
Kremlin confirms contacts between Russian and US officials on a US peace proposal, with Putin reportedly open to territorial swaps but insisting on retaining Donbas, reflecting stalled but ongoing diplomacy
Market declines as no progress emerges on summit talks and Russia maintains maximalist positions on Ukraine, reducing likelihood of a meeting in Turkey
Turkey drops to 6%6%
Market declines as no progress emerges on summit talks and Russia maintains maximalist positions on Ukraine, reducing likelihood of a meeting in Turkey
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov states Russia is ready to discuss summit preparations if the US returns to its proposal, briefly boosting market hopes
Russia rises to 7%2%
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov states Russia is ready to discuss summit preparations if the US returns to its proposal, briefly boosting market hopes
Russia seeks closer ties with China following Trump-Xi meeting, signaling Moscow's discomfort with US-China rapprochement and diminishing prospects for a Trump-Putin meeting
China dips to 1%4%
Russia seeks closer ties with China following Trump-Xi meeting, signaling Moscow's discomfort with US-China rapprochement and diminishing prospects for a Trump-Putin meeting
Russian Foreign Ministry sends a memo to Washington reiterating maximalist demands on Ukraine, leading to the official cancellation of the Budapest summit and further market
Russia dips to 5%3%
Russian Foreign Ministry sends a memo to Washington reiterating maximalist demands on Ukraine, leading to the official cancellation of the Budapest summit and further market decline
U.S. cancels Budapest summit after Russia sends hardline memo reiterating maximalist demands on Ukraine, solidifying the collapse of talks and eliminating near-term meeting chances
U.S. cancels Budapest summit after Russia sends hardline memo reiterating maximalist demands on Ukraine, solidifying the collapse of talks and eliminating near-term meeting chances
Trump and Xi Jinping hold a bilateral meeting at the APEC summit in Busan, South Korea, resulting in a trade truce with tariff reductions and suspension of Chinese rare earth
China jumps to 5%5%
Trump and Xi Jinping hold a bilateral meeting at the APEC summit in Busan, South Korea, resulting in a trade truce with tariff reductions and suspension of Chinese rare earth export controls; Trump praises the meeting as "amazing"
Trump states he will not meet Putin until a peace deal on Ukraine is in place, reinforcing market belief that no meeting will occur soon
No meeting by June 30 jumps to 48%12%
Trump states he will not meet Putin until a peace deal on Ukraine is in place, reinforcing market belief that no meeting will occur soon
Trump states he will not meet Putin until he believes a peace deal on Ukraine is in place, further reducing chances of a meeting in Turkey
Turkey dips to 2%2%
Trump states he will not meet Putin until he believes a peace deal on Ukraine is in place, further reducing chances of a meeting in Turkey
Trump announces upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30 amid escalating US-China trade tensions and new tariffs
China dips to 0%3%
Trump announces upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30 amid escalating US-China trade tensions and new tariffs
Trump officially cancels the planned Budapest summit citing stalled negotiations and poor timing, dashing hopes for a near-term meeting in Turkey or nearby
Turkey rises to 8%3%
Trump officially cancels the planned Budapest summit citing stalled negotiations and poor timing, dashing hopes for a near-term meeting in Turkey or nearby
Trump officially cancels the planned Budapest summit, citing lack of progress and that the timing "didn't feel right," confirming no meeting will occur soon
Other dips to 1%1%
Trump officially cancels the planned Budapest summit, citing lack of progress and that the timing "didn't feel right," confirming no meeting will occur soon
Trump officially cancels planned Budapest summit with Putin, citing stalled negotiations and that the timing "didn't feel right," confirming no near-term meeting
Trump officially cancels planned Budapest summit with Putin, citing stalled negotiations and that the timing "didn't feel right," confirming no near-term meeting
White House and multiple sources announce there are no plans for a Trump-Putin meeting in the immediate future, effectively calling off the Budapest summit due to stalled
Other drops to 2%7%
White House and multiple sources announce there are no plans for a Trump-Putin meeting in the immediate future, effectively calling off the Budapest summit due to stalled negotiations and Russia's refusal to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine
Reports emerge that the planned Trump-Putin summit is off due to Russia's refusal to budge on Ukraine demands; White House says no immediate plans for a meeting
Gulf country drops to 2%13%
The cancellation of the Budapest summit and official statements dashed hopes for a Gulf country meeting, triggering a steep
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hold a "constructive" call preparing for the summit, but no firm meeting date is set, maintaining
No meeting by June 30 rises to 19%2%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hold a "constructive" call preparing for the summit, but no firm meeting date is set, maintaining market doubts
Russian Foreign Ministry reports a "constructive" preparatory call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for the Budapest summit,
Russia rises to 4%2%
Russian Foreign Ministry reports a "constructive" preparatory call between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for the Budapest summit, sustaining meeting expectations
Reports emerge that Putin offered territorial concessions in Ukraine during call with Trump, but the deal is seen as complex and contentious, increasing uncertainty about a meeting
No meeting by June 30 rises to 17%3%
Reports emerge that Putin offered territorial concessions in Ukraine during call with Trump, but the deal is seen as complex and contentious, increasing uncertainty about a meeting
Trump announces plans to meet Putin in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the Ukraine war, following a productive phone call with Putin
Gulf country plunges to 16%30%
Trump's public commitment to a near-term summit in a European location raised hopes for a meeting, initially boosting the market
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks after a lengthy phone call, raising initial hopes for a meeting to discuss Ukraine peace talks
No meeting by June 30 plunges to 14%21%
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Budapest within two weeks after a lengthy phone call, raising initial hopes for a meeting to discuss Ukraine peace talks
















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