Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for 2026 clusters tightly around 800–900B and 900B–1T bins, reflecting mixed signals from Bureau of Economic Analysis data: the goods and services gap narrowed sharply year-to-date versus early 2025 amid tariff implementations and export gains, but March's goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9 billion on surging imports, offsetting prior progress. This keeps the race close as traders weigh America First trade policies from USTR against robust consumer demand and global supply dynamics. Separation could arise from sustained import declines via escalated tariffs or stronger-than-expected GDP growth fueling higher deficits, with upcoming monthly BEA releases pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$19,967 Vol.
$19,967 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
21%
500–600B
7%
600–700B
11%
700–800B
17%
800–900 mil millones
31%
900 mil millones–1 billón
26%
1T–1,1T
12%
1,1 billones+
6%
$19,967 Vol.
$19,967 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,528 Vol.
21%
500–600B
$288 Vol.
7%
600–700B
$315 Vol.
11%
700–800B
$343 Vol.
17%
800–900 mil millones
$838 Vol.
31%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$818 Vol.
26%
1T–1,1T
$328 Vol.
12%
1,1 billones+
$509 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for 2026 clusters tightly around 800–900B and 900B–1T bins, reflecting mixed signals from Bureau of Economic Analysis data: the goods and services gap narrowed sharply year-to-date versus early 2025 amid tariff implementations and export gains, but March's goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9 billion on surging imports, offsetting prior progress. This keeps the race close as traders weigh America First trade policies from USTR against robust consumer demand and global supply dynamics. Separation could arise from sustained import declines via escalated tariffs or stronger-than-expected GDP growth fueling higher deficits, with upcoming monthly BEA releases pivotal.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$19,967Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for 2026 clusters tightly around 800–900B and 900B–1T bins, reflecting mixed signals from Bureau of Economic Analysis data: the goods and services gap narrowed sharply year-to-date versus early 2025 amid tariff implementations and export gains, but March's goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9 billion on surging imports, offsetting prior progress. This keeps the race close as traders weigh America First trade policies from USTR against robust consumer demand and global supply dynamics. Separation could arise from sustained import declines via escalated tariffs or stronger-than-expected GDP growth fueling higher deficits, with upcoming monthly BEA releases pivotal.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$19,967Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for 2026 clusters tightly around 800–900B and 900B–1T bins, reflecting mixed signals from Bureau of Economic Analysis data: the goods and services gap narrowed sharply year-to-date versus early 2025 amid tariff implementations and export gains, but March's goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9 billion on surging imports, offsetting prior progress. This keeps the race close as traders weigh America First trade policies from USTR against robust consumer demand and global supply dynamics. Separation could arise from sustained import declines via escalated tariffs or stronger-than-expected GDP growth fueling higher deficits, with upcoming monthly BEA releases pivotal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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