Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services deficits have stabilized near $55–60 billion in early 2026 after 2025 front-loading ahead of broad tariff increases, producing a full-year 2025 total of roughly $900 billion. Record goods exports, especially capital goods and energy, combined with slower import growth post-adjustment have narrowed the gap year-to-date versus 2025, supporting trader pricing that favors an 800–900 billion outcome for calendar 2026. Persistent macroeconomic drivers—the U.S. savings-investment imbalance and federal budget position—limit further compression, while ongoing tariff effects on bilateral flows (reduced China deficit offset by rises with Mexico and Canada) and AI-related capital imports add offsetting pressures. CBO projections and recent BEA data reinforce expectations of modest further narrowing rather than sharp contraction or expansion through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$21,256 Vol.
$21,256 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
5%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
10%
800–900 mil millones
38%
900 mil millones–1 billón
19%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 billones+
5%
$21,256 Vol.
$21,256 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,808 Vol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$505 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900 mil millones
$1,008 Vol.
38%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$984 Vol.
19%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
5%
1,1 billones+
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services deficits have stabilized near $55–60 billion in early 2026 after 2025 front-loading ahead of broad tariff increases, producing a full-year 2025 total of roughly $900 billion. Record goods exports, especially capital goods and energy, combined with slower import growth post-adjustment have narrowed the gap year-to-date versus 2025, supporting trader pricing that favors an 800–900 billion outcome for calendar 2026. Persistent macroeconomic drivers—the U.S. savings-investment imbalance and federal budget position—limit further compression, while ongoing tariff effects on bilateral flows (reduced China deficit offset by rises with Mexico and Canada) and AI-related capital imports add offsetting pressures. CBO projections and recent BEA data reinforce expectations of modest further narrowing rather than sharp contraction or expansion through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$21,256Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services deficits have stabilized near $55–60 billion in early 2026 after 2025 front-loading ahead of broad tariff increases, producing a full-year 2025 total of roughly $900 billion. Record goods exports, especially capital goods and energy, combined with slower import growth post-adjustment have narrowed the gap year-to-date versus 2025, supporting trader pricing that favors an 800–900 billion outcome for calendar 2026. Persistent macroeconomic drivers—the U.S. savings-investment imbalance and federal budget position—limit further compression, while ongoing tariff effects on bilateral flows (reduced China deficit offset by rises with Mexico and Canada) and AI-related capital imports add offsetting pressures. CBO projections and recent BEA data reinforce expectations of modest further narrowing rather than sharp contraction or expansion through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,256Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services deficits have stabilized near $55–60 billion in early 2026 after 2025 front-loading ahead of broad tariff increases, producing a full-year 2025 total of roughly $900 billion. Record goods exports, especially capital goods and energy, combined with slower import growth post-adjustment have narrowed the gap year-to-date versus 2025, supporting trader pricing that favors an 800–900 billion outcome for calendar 2026. Persistent macroeconomic drivers—the U.S. savings-investment imbalance and federal budget position—limit further compression, while ongoing tariff effects on bilateral flows (reduced China deficit offset by rises with Mexico and Canada) and AI-related capital imports add offsetting pressures. CBO projections and recent BEA data reinforce expectations of modest further narrowing rather than sharp contraction or expansion through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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