Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by persistent military escalation and stalled diplomacy despite recent high-level interventions. President Trump's April 29 phone call with Putin discussed a temporary May 9 Victory Day ceasefire, but Ukraine continues drone strikes on Russian refineries like Tuapse and Perm, while Russia launches massive drone barrages. Zelenskyy approved new operations on April 29 to "impose diplomacy" if talks falter, signaling no de-escalation. Gaps remain wide over territorial concessions, troop withdrawals, and security guarantees, with prior Easter truce limited to 32 hours and no comprehensive negotiations advancing. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough could shift odds, though active hostilities dominate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$105,484 Vol.
$105,484 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$105,484 Vol.
$105,484 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by persistent military escalation and stalled diplomacy despite recent high-level interventions. President Trump's April 29 phone call with Putin discussed a temporary May 9 Victory Day ceasefire, but Ukraine continues drone strikes on Russian refineries like Tuapse and Perm, while Russia launches massive drone barrages. Zelenskyy approved new operations on April 29 to "impose diplomacy" if talks falter, signaling no de-escalation. Gaps remain wide over territorial concessions, troop withdrawals, and security guarantees, with prior Easter truce limited to 32 hours and no comprehensive negotiations advancing. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough could shift odds, though active hostilities dominate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$105,484Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by persistent military escalation and stalled diplomacy despite recent high-level interventions. President Trump's April 29 phone call with Putin discussed a temporary May 9 Victory Day ceasefire, but Ukraine continues drone strikes on Russian refineries like Tuapse and Perm, while Russia launches massive drone barrages. Zelenskyy approved new operations on April 29 to "impose diplomacy" if talks falter, signaling no de-escalation. Gaps remain wide over territorial concessions, troop withdrawals, and security guarantees, with prior Easter truce limited to 32 hours and no comprehensive negotiations advancing. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough could shift odds, though active hostilities dominate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$105,484Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 94.5% for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by persistent military escalation and stalled diplomacy despite recent high-level interventions. President Trump's April 29 phone call with Putin discussed a temporary May 9 Victory Day ceasefire, but Ukraine continues drone strikes on Russian refineries like Tuapse and Perm, while Russia launches massive drone barrages. Zelenskyy approved new operations on April 29 to "impose diplomacy" if talks falter, signaling no de-escalation. Gaps remain wide over territorial concessions, troop withdrawals, and security guarantees, with prior Easter truce limited to 32 hours and no comprehensive negotiations advancing. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough could shift odds, though active hostilities dominate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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