Traders assign a 97% probability against Ukraine signing any peace agreement or ceasefire framework with Russia by June 30 because U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on core disputes, including territorial control of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, NATO accession, and security guarantees. Formal negotiations have remained paused since March amid competing U.S. priorities in the Middle East, with Russia continuing to demand maximalist concessions such as full handover of Donbas territories and demilitarization while showing limited flexibility in statements from Foreign Minister Lavrov. Prisoner exchanges and brief reciprocal ceasefires have occurred, but these have not advanced toward a written instrument resolving hostilities. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an abrupt diplomatic alignment in the final weeks or a sudden battlefield development forcing concessions, though the short timeline and entrenched positions make such shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$697,791 Vol.
$697,791 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$697,791 Vol.
$697,791 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 97% probability against Ukraine signing any peace agreement or ceasefire framework with Russia by June 30 because U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on core disputes, including territorial control of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, NATO accession, and security guarantees. Formal negotiations have remained paused since March amid competing U.S. priorities in the Middle East, with Russia continuing to demand maximalist concessions such as full handover of Donbas territories and demilitarization while showing limited flexibility in statements from Foreign Minister Lavrov. Prisoner exchanges and brief reciprocal ceasefires have occurred, but these have not advanced toward a written instrument resolving hostilities. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an abrupt diplomatic alignment in the final weeks or a sudden battlefield development forcing concessions, though the short timeline and entrenched positions make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$697,791Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 97% probability against Ukraine signing any peace agreement or ceasefire framework with Russia by June 30 because U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on core disputes, including territorial control of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, NATO accession, and security guarantees. Formal negotiations have remained paused since March amid competing U.S. priorities in the Middle East, with Russia continuing to demand maximalist concessions such as full handover of Donbas territories and demilitarization while showing limited flexibility in statements from Foreign Minister Lavrov. Prisoner exchanges and brief reciprocal ceasefires have occurred, but these have not advanced toward a written instrument resolving hostilities. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an abrupt diplomatic alignment in the final weeks or a sudden battlefield development forcing concessions, though the short timeline and entrenched positions make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$697,791Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% probability against Ukraine signing any peace agreement or ceasefire framework with Russia by June 30 because U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on core disputes, including territorial control of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, NATO accession, and security guarantees. Formal negotiations have remained paused since March amid competing U.S. priorities in the Middle East, with Russia continuing to demand maximalist concessions such as full handover of Donbas territories and demilitarization while showing limited flexibility in statements from Foreign Minister Lavrov. Prisoner exchanges and brief reciprocal ceasefires have occurred, but these have not advanced toward a written instrument resolving hostilities. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an abrupt diplomatic alignment in the final weeks or a sudden battlefield development forcing concessions, though the short timeline and entrenched positions make such shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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