Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy explain the 97% trader consensus against a signed Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. Multiple U.S.-facilitated trilateral talks in early 2026 produced no breakthrough on core disputes, including Ukrainian territorial concessions and long-term security guarantees, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and rejecting interim ceasefires. Recent June 2026 developments, including intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, underscore continued battlefield momentum over negotiation progress. With only two weeks remaining and no scheduled summit or framework agreement in place, the timeline leaves minimal scope for the formal treaty required to resolve the market. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure could theoretically shift outcomes, though historical patterns suggest low probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$697,792 Vol.
$697,792 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$697,792 Vol.
$697,792 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy explain the 97% trader consensus against a signed Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. Multiple U.S.-facilitated trilateral talks in early 2026 produced no breakthrough on core disputes, including Ukrainian territorial concessions and long-term security guarantees, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and rejecting interim ceasefires. Recent June 2026 developments, including intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, underscore continued battlefield momentum over negotiation progress. With only two weeks remaining and no scheduled summit or framework agreement in place, the timeline leaves minimal scope for the formal treaty required to resolve the market. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure could theoretically shift outcomes, though historical patterns suggest low probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$697,792Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy explain the 97% trader consensus against a signed Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. Multiple U.S.-facilitated trilateral talks in early 2026 produced no breakthrough on core disputes, including Ukrainian territorial concessions and long-term security guarantees, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and rejecting interim ceasefires. Recent June 2026 developments, including intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, underscore continued battlefield momentum over negotiation progress. With only two weeks remaining and no scheduled summit or framework agreement in place, the timeline leaves minimal scope for the formal treaty required to resolve the market. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure could theoretically shift outcomes, though historical patterns suggest low probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$697,792Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations and stalled diplomacy explain the 97% trader consensus against a signed Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. Multiple U.S.-facilitated trilateral talks in early 2026 produced no breakthrough on core disputes, including Ukrainian territorial concessions and long-term security guarantees, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands and rejecting interim ceasefires. Recent June 2026 developments, including intensified Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities and Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, underscore continued battlefield momentum over negotiation progress. With only two weeks remaining and no scheduled summit or framework agreement in place, the timeline leaves minimal scope for the formal treaty required to resolve the market. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure could theoretically shift outcomes, though historical patterns suggest low probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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