Trader consensus reflects skepticism over a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations amid ongoing military actions and unresolved core disputes on territory, security guarantees, and demilitarized zones. In the past 24 hours, President Putin proposed a short-term Victory Day ceasefire around May 9 following talks with President Trump, prompting President Zelenskyy to seek U.S. clarification while countering with a long-term truce offer; however, Ukraine escalated oil strikes on Russia, underscoring persistent escalation signals. Earlier April developments, including a brief Easter ceasefire and intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov's hints at converging positions, failed to yield breakthroughs, as talks paused due to U.S. focus on Iran and Russia's spring offensive gains. With maximalist stances intact and no scheduled direct summits, traders price low odds on a full agreement soon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$221,589 Vol.
$221,589 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$221,589 Vol.
$221,589 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects skepticism over a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations amid ongoing military actions and unresolved core disputes on territory, security guarantees, and demilitarized zones. In the past 24 hours, President Putin proposed a short-term Victory Day ceasefire around May 9 following talks with President Trump, prompting President Zelenskyy to seek U.S. clarification while countering with a long-term truce offer; however, Ukraine escalated oil strikes on Russia, underscoring persistent escalation signals. Earlier April developments, including a brief Easter ceasefire and intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov's hints at converging positions, failed to yield breakthroughs, as talks paused due to U.S. focus on Iran and Russia's spring offensive gains. With maximalist stances intact and no scheduled direct summits, traders price low odds on a full agreement soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volumen
$221,589Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus reflects skepticism over a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations amid ongoing military actions and unresolved core disputes on territory, security guarantees, and demilitarized zones. In the past 24 hours, President Putin proposed a short-term Victory Day ceasefire around May 9 following talks with President Trump, prompting President Zelenskyy to seek U.S. clarification while countering with a long-term truce offer; however, Ukraine escalated oil strikes on Russia, underscoring persistent escalation signals. Earlier April developments, including a brief Easter ceasefire and intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov's hints at converging positions, failed to yield breakthroughs, as talks paused due to U.S. focus on Iran and Russia's spring offensive gains. With maximalist stances intact and no scheduled direct summits, traders price low odds on a full agreement soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$221,589Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects skepticism over a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations amid ongoing military actions and unresolved core disputes on territory, security guarantees, and demilitarized zones. In the past 24 hours, President Putin proposed a short-term Victory Day ceasefire around May 9 following talks with President Trump, prompting President Zelenskyy to seek U.S. clarification while countering with a long-term truce offer; however, Ukraine escalated oil strikes on Russia, underscoring persistent escalation signals. Earlier April developments, including a brief Easter ceasefire and intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov's hints at converging positions, failed to yield breakthroughs, as talks paused due to U.S. focus on Iran and Russia's spring offensive gains. With maximalist stances intact and no scheduled direct summits, traders price low odds on a full agreement soon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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