Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, marked by unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms, underpins trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be reached by the end of 2026. Multiple rounds of U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva during January and February 2026 produced no breakthroughs, with Russia rejecting Ukrainian 20-point proposals and insisting on its core demands. As of early June 2026, U.S. mediation has slowed amid shifting priorities, prompting Ukraine to seek greater European involvement in potential talks. Temporary halts in fighting, such as the brief May ceasefire, have not translated into lasting progress, and battlefield developments continue to reflect entrenched positions on both sides. These factors align with the current 73.5% implied probability on “No.”
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$2,234,429 Vol.
$2,234,429 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$2,234,429 Vol.
$2,234,429 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, marked by unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms, underpins trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be reached by the end of 2026. Multiple rounds of U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva during January and February 2026 produced no breakthroughs, with Russia rejecting Ukrainian 20-point proposals and insisting on its core demands. As of early June 2026, U.S. mediation has slowed amid shifting priorities, prompting Ukraine to seek greater European involvement in potential talks. Temporary halts in fighting, such as the brief May ceasefire, have not translated into lasting progress, and battlefield developments continue to reflect entrenched positions on both sides. These factors align with the current 73.5% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volumen
$2,234,429Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, marked by unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms, underpins trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be reached by the end of 2026. Multiple rounds of U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva during January and February 2026 produced no breakthroughs, with Russia rejecting Ukrainian 20-point proposals and insisting on its core demands. As of early June 2026, U.S. mediation has slowed amid shifting priorities, prompting Ukraine to seek greater European involvement in potential talks. Temporary halts in fighting, such as the brief May ceasefire, have not translated into lasting progress, and battlefield developments continue to reflect entrenched positions on both sides. These factors align with the current 73.5% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,234,429Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, marked by unresolved disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms, underpins trader expectations that no comprehensive peace agreement will be reached by the end of 2026. Multiple rounds of U.S.-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva during January and February 2026 produced no breakthroughs, with Russia rejecting Ukrainian 20-point proposals and insisting on its core demands. As of early June 2026, U.S. mediation has slowed amid shifting priorities, prompting Ukraine to seek greater European involvement in potential talks. Temporary halts in fighting, such as the brief May ceasefire, have not translated into lasting progress, and battlefield developments continue to reflect entrenched positions on both sides. These factors align with the current 73.5% implied probability on “No.”
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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