Polymarket traders price UK Q1 2026 GDP growth as a closely contested affair, with the 0.9-1.2% bin holding a slim 24.4% implied probability over 0.6-0.9% at 22.4%, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the May 14 ONS quarterly release. February's stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP expansion—following January's mere 0.1%—lifted sentiment for moderate acceleration, bolstered by March retail sales rebounding 0.7% and April composite PMI rising to 52.0 amid resilient manufacturing at 53.7. Countering this, the Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report nowcasts underlying Q1 growth at just 0.2%, weighed by Middle East geopolitical tensions, construction weakness, and IMF/OECD downgrades of full-year 2026 GDP to 0.8%. March monthly GDP data, due concurrently, remains the pivotal swing factor.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el primer trimestre de 2026?
0,6-0,9% 22.1%
0,9-1,2% 20.0%
0,3-0,6% 19.3%
1,5-1,8% 7.8%
$25,450 Vol.
$25,450 Vol.
14 may 2026
Negativo
3%
0,0-0,3%
3%
0,3-0,6%
19%
0,6-0,9%
22%
0,9-1,2%
27%
1,2-1,5%
8%
1,5-1,8%
8%
1,8%+
4%
0,6-0,9% 22.1%
0,9-1,2% 20.0%
0,3-0,6% 19.3%
1,5-1,8% 7.8%
$25,450 Vol.
$25,450 Vol.
14 may 2026
Negativo
$2,216 Vol.
3%
0,0-0,3%
$10,201 Vol.
3%
0,3-0,6%
$1,839 Vol.
19%
0,6-0,9%
$7,465 Vol.
22%
0,9-1,2%
$786 Vol.
27%
1,2-1,5%
$730 Vol.
8%
1,5-1,8%
$838 Vol.
8%
1,8%+
$1,375 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price UK Q1 2026 GDP growth as a closely contested affair, with the 0.9-1.2% bin holding a slim 24.4% implied probability over 0.6-0.9% at 22.4%, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the May 14 ONS quarterly release. February's stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP expansion—following January's mere 0.1%—lifted sentiment for moderate acceleration, bolstered by March retail sales rebounding 0.7% and April composite PMI rising to 52.0 amid resilient manufacturing at 53.7. Countering this, the Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report nowcasts underlying Q1 growth at just 0.2%, weighed by Middle East geopolitical tensions, construction weakness, and IMF/OECD downgrades of full-year 2026 GDP to 0.8%. March monthly GDP data, due concurrently, remains the pivotal swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$25,450Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price UK Q1 2026 GDP growth as a closely contested affair, with the 0.9-1.2% bin holding a slim 24.4% implied probability over 0.6-0.9% at 22.4%, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the May 14 ONS quarterly release. February's stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP expansion—following January's mere 0.1%—lifted sentiment for moderate acceleration, bolstered by March retail sales rebounding 0.7% and April composite PMI rising to 52.0 amid resilient manufacturing at 53.7. Countering this, the Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report nowcasts underlying Q1 growth at just 0.2%, weighed by Middle East geopolitical tensions, construction weakness, and IMF/OECD downgrades of full-year 2026 GDP to 0.8%. March monthly GDP data, due concurrently, remains the pivotal swing factor.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$25,450Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price UK Q1 2026 GDP growth as a closely contested affair, with the 0.9-1.2% bin holding a slim 24.4% implied probability over 0.6-0.9% at 22.4%, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the May 14 ONS quarterly release. February's stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP expansion—following January's mere 0.1%—lifted sentiment for moderate acceleration, bolstered by March retail sales rebounding 0.7% and April composite PMI rising to 52.0 amid resilient manufacturing at 53.7. Countering this, the Bank of England's April Monetary Policy Report nowcasts underlying Q1 growth at just 0.2%, weighed by Middle East geopolitical tensions, construction weakness, and IMF/OECD downgrades of full-year 2026 GDP to 0.8%. March monthly GDP data, due concurrently, remains the pivotal swing factor.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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