Despite heightened Democratic calls in mid-April for invoking the 25th Amendment or pursuing impeachment over President Trump's Iran rhetoric and unsubstantiated health rumors—prompting Rep. Jamie Raskin's bill and statements from figures like ex-CIA directors—traders assign an 86.5% implied probability to "No," reflecting Republican House and Senate majorities that block removal absent bipartisan support. Historical precedents from Trump's prior impeachments underscore low base rates for Senate conviction, while White House rebuttals have quelled cognitive decline speculation. With 2026 midterms looming in November, any power shift remains post-2027 for full-term effects, sustaining trader consensus on tenure stability through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Trump saldrá como presidente antes de 2027?
¿Trump saldrá como presidente antes de 2027?
Sí
$8,011,167 Vol.
$8,011,167 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$8,011,167 Vol.
$8,011,167 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite heightened Democratic calls in mid-April for invoking the 25th Amendment or pursuing impeachment over President Trump's Iran rhetoric and unsubstantiated health rumors—prompting Rep. Jamie Raskin's bill and statements from figures like ex-CIA directors—traders assign an 86.5% implied probability to "No," reflecting Republican House and Senate majorities that block removal absent bipartisan support. Historical precedents from Trump's prior impeachments underscore low base rates for Senate conviction, while White House rebuttals have quelled cognitive decline speculation. With 2026 midterms looming in November, any power shift remains post-2027 for full-term effects, sustaining trader consensus on tenure stability through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volumen
$8,011,167Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite heightened Democratic calls in mid-April for invoking the 25th Amendment or pursuing impeachment over President Trump's Iran rhetoric and unsubstantiated health rumors—prompting Rep. Jamie Raskin's bill and statements from figures like ex-CIA directors—traders assign an 86.5% implied probability to "No," reflecting Republican House and Senate majorities that block removal absent bipartisan support. Historical precedents from Trump's prior impeachments underscore low base rates for Senate conviction, while White House rebuttals have quelled cognitive decline speculation. With 2026 midterms looming in November, any power shift remains post-2027 for full-term effects, sustaining trader consensus on tenure stability through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$8,011,586Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite heightened Democratic calls in mid-April for invoking the 25th Amendment or pursuing impeachment over President Trump's Iran rhetoric and unsubstantiated health rumors—prompting Rep. Jamie Raskin's bill and statements from figures like ex-CIA directors—traders assign an 86.5% implied probability to "No," reflecting Republican House and Senate majorities that block removal absent bipartisan support. Historical precedents from Trump's prior impeachments underscore low base rates for Senate conviction, while White House rebuttals have quelled cognitive decline speculation. With 2026 midterms looming in November, any power shift remains post-2027 for full-term effects, sustaining trader consensus on tenure stability through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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