Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors South Africa 2026 annual CPI exceeding 5.0% at 54.5% implied probability, amid closely contested outcomes reflecting uncertainty over geopolitical spillovers. March 2026 headline CPI edged up to 3.1% year-on-year from 3.0%, driven by education fees and housing rents, while SARB's April review projects a 3.7% annual average with a Q2 peak near 4% from 18%+ fuel inflation tied to Middle East conflict risks and rand depreciation. Upside tail risks from prolonged oil shocks and second-round effects compete against baseline disinflation assumptions, with April CPI data and May MPC decision as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado>5,0% 50.6%
4,1-4,4% 32%
<2,6% 17.8%
4,7-5,0% 3%
$21,281 Vol.
$21,281 Vol.
20 ene 2027
<2,6%
18%
2,6-2,9%
42%
2,9-3,2%
45%
3,2-3,5%
46%
3,5-3,8%
48%
3.8-4.1%
47%
4,1-4,4%
24%
4,4-4,7%
43%
4,7-5,0%
9%
>5,0%
51%
>5,0% 50.6%
4,1-4,4% 32%
<2,6% 17.8%
4,7-5,0% 3%
$21,281 Vol.
$21,281 Vol.
20 ene 2027
<2,6%
$255 Vol.
18%
2,6-2,9%
$270 Vol.
42%
2,9-3,2%
$350 Vol.
45%
3,2-3,5%
$363 Vol.
46%
3,5-3,8%
$460 Vol.
48%
3.8-4.1%
$655 Vol.
47%
4,1-4,4%
$532 Vol.
24%
4,4-4,7%
$12,089 Vol.
43%
4,7-5,0%
$366 Vol.
9%
>5,0%
$5,941 Vol.
51%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors South Africa 2026 annual CPI exceeding 5.0% at 54.5% implied probability, amid closely contested outcomes reflecting uncertainty over geopolitical spillovers. March 2026 headline CPI edged up to 3.1% year-on-year from 3.0%, driven by education fees and housing rents, while SARB's April review projects a 3.7% annual average with a Q2 peak near 4% from 18%+ fuel inflation tied to Middle East conflict risks and rand depreciation. Upside tail risks from prolonged oil shocks and second-round effects compete against baseline disinflation assumptions, with April CPI data and May MPC decision as pivotal catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Mercado abierto: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volumen
$21,281Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors South Africa 2026 annual CPI exceeding 5.0% at 54.5% implied probability, amid closely contested outcomes reflecting uncertainty over geopolitical spillovers. March 2026 headline CPI edged up to 3.1% year-on-year from 3.0%, driven by education fees and housing rents, while SARB's April review projects a 3.7% annual average with a Q2 peak near 4% from 18%+ fuel inflation tied to Middle East conflict risks and rand depreciation. Upside tail risks from prolonged oil shocks and second-round effects compete against baseline disinflation assumptions, with April CPI data and May MPC decision as pivotal catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volumen
$21,281Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors South Africa 2026 annual CPI exceeding 5.0% at 54.5% implied probability, amid closely contested outcomes reflecting uncertainty over geopolitical spillovers. March 2026 headline CPI edged up to 3.1% year-on-year from 3.0%, driven by education fees and housing rents, while SARB's April review projects a 3.7% annual average with a Q2 peak near 4% from 18%+ fuel inflation tied to Middle East conflict risks and rand depreciation. Upside tail risks from prolonged oil shocks and second-round effects compete against baseline disinflation assumptions, with April CPI data and May MPC decision as pivotal catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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