Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding 95.7% implied probability in the New Mexico Senate race stems from no Republican candidate filing by the February 3, 2026, deadline, leaving him unopposed in the general election following the June 2 primary. A recent Research & Polling survey (April 17-24) shows Luján leading his Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson 69%-9% among likely voters, reinforcing trader consensus on a straightforward path to re-election in the deeply blue state. While write-in Republican efforts or a stunning primary upset could theoretically challenge this, historical precedents indicate such barriers rarely overcome incumbency and structural advantages before the November 3 ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Nuevo México
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Nuevo México
$13,796 Vol.
$13,796 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
96%
Republicano
3%
$13,796 Vol.
$13,796 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
$7,945 Vol.
96%
Republicano
$5,851 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding 95.7% implied probability in the New Mexico Senate race stems from no Republican candidate filing by the February 3, 2026, deadline, leaving him unopposed in the general election following the June 2 primary. A recent Research & Polling survey (April 17-24) shows Luján leading his Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson 69%-9% among likely voters, reinforcing trader consensus on a straightforward path to re-election in the deeply blue state. While write-in Republican efforts or a stunning primary upset could theoretically challenge this, historical precedents indicate such barriers rarely overcome incumbency and structural advantages before the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volumen
$13,796Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding 95.7% implied probability in the New Mexico Senate race stems from no Republican candidate filing by the February 3, 2026, deadline, leaving him unopposed in the general election following the June 2 primary. A recent Research & Polling survey (April 17-24) shows Luján leading his Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson 69%-9% among likely voters, reinforcing trader consensus on a straightforward path to re-election in the deeply blue state. While write-in Republican efforts or a stunning primary upset could theoretically challenge this, historical precedents indicate such barriers rarely overcome incumbency and structural advantages before the November 3 ballot.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$13,796Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján's commanding 95.7% implied probability in the New Mexico Senate race stems from no Republican candidate filing by the February 3, 2026, deadline, leaving him unopposed in the general election following the June 2 primary. A recent Research & Polling survey (April 17-24) shows Luján leading his Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson 69%-9% among likely voters, reinforcing trader consensus on a straightforward path to re-election in the deeply blue state. While write-in Republican efforts or a stunning primary upset could theoretically challenge this, historical precedents indicate such barriers rarely overcome incumbency and structural advantages before the November 3 ballot.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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