Amid fragile U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire negotiations that began April 16, 2026—following massive Israeli airstrikes on over 150 Lebanese sites including Beirut on April 8—traders assess low odds of Israeli ground forces entering Beirut, as operations remain confined to southern Lebanon beyond the Litani River buffer zone. Recent escalations include April 26 evacuation orders for towns north of the zone, strikes killing 14 including Hezbollah fighters, and mutual threats, but no verified ground advances toward the capital. Diplomatic talks continue amid ongoing artillery exchanges, with ceasefire expiration risks and potential peace summits key catalysts for shifts in escalation probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Las fuerzas israelíes entran en Beirut por...?
¿Las fuerzas israelíes entran en Beirut por...?
$205,775 Vol.
30 abr 2026
30 de abril
<1%
$205,775 Vol.
30 de abril
$171,154 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Amid fragile U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire negotiations that began April 16, 2026—following massive Israeli airstrikes on over 150 Lebanese sites including Beirut on April 8—traders assess low odds of Israeli ground forces entering Beirut, as operations remain confined to southern Lebanon beyond the Litani River buffer zone. Recent escalations include April 26 evacuation orders for towns north of the zone, strikes killing 14 including Hezbollah fighters, and mutual threats, but no verified ground advances toward the capital. Diplomatic talks continue amid ongoing artillery exchanges, with ceasefire expiration risks and potential peace summits key catalysts for shifts in escalation probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ET
Volumen
$205,775Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Amid fragile U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire negotiations that began April 16, 2026—following massive Israeli airstrikes on over 150 Lebanese sites including Beirut on April 8—traders assess low odds of Israeli ground forces entering Beirut, as operations remain confined to southern Lebanon beyond the Litani River buffer zone. Recent escalations include April 26 evacuation orders for towns north of the zone, strikes killing 14 including Hezbollah fighters, and mutual threats, but no verified ground advances toward the capital. Diplomatic talks continue amid ongoing artillery exchanges, with ceasefire expiration risks and potential peace summits key catalysts for shifts in escalation probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.
Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$205,775Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid fragile U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire negotiations that began April 16, 2026—following massive Israeli airstrikes on over 150 Lebanese sites including Beirut on April 8—traders assess low odds of Israeli ground forces entering Beirut, as operations remain confined to southern Lebanon beyond the Litani River buffer zone. Recent escalations include April 26 evacuation orders for towns north of the zone, strikes killing 14 including Hezbollah fighters, and mutual threats, but no verified ground advances toward the capital. Diplomatic talks continue amid ongoing artillery exchanges, with ceasefire expiration risks and potential peace summits key catalysts for shifts in escalation probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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