A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, brokered April 8 and extended multiple times through April 23, remains in effect as President Trump awaits Tehran's unified proposal amid stalled talks in Pakistan. Tensions persist with US naval blockade and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz, countered by Iran's April 22 attacks on three ships, while an Israel-Lebanon truce was prolonged by three weeks. No major airstrikes or missile barrages have occurred since early April, but both sides prepare for potential resumption if diplomacy fails. Traders monitor upcoming proposal deadlines and negotiation outcomes, which could signal de-escalation or renewed escalation in this protracted conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
¿El conflicto Irán x Israel/Estados Unidos termina con...?
$100,611,327 Vol.
31 mar 2026
7 de marzo
No
15 de marzo
No
31 de marzo
No
7 de abril
Sí
15 de abril
Sí
30 de abril
Sí
15 de mayo
Sí
30 de junio
Sí
31 de diciembre
Sí
$100,611,327 Vol.
7 de marzo
$0 Vol.
No
15 de marzo
$0 Vol.
No
31 de marzo
$5,162,925 Vol.
No
7 de abril
$48,720,376 Vol.
Sí
15 de abril
$17,450,416 Vol.
Sí
30 de abril
$5,780,137 Vol.
Sí
15 de mayo
$13,670,502 Vol.
Sí
30 de junio
$5,872,192 Vol.
Sí
31 de diciembre
$3,954,778 Vol.
Sí
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, brokered April 8 and extended multiple times through April 23, remains in effect as President Trump awaits Tehran's unified proposal amid stalled talks in Pakistan. Tensions persist with US naval blockade and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz, countered by Iran's April 22 attacks on three ships, while an Israel-Lebanon truce was prolonged by three weeks. No major airstrikes or missile barrages have occurred since early April, but both sides prepare for potential resumption if diplomacy fails. Traders monitor upcoming proposal deadlines and negotiation outcomes, which could signal de-escalation or renewed escalation in this protracted conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Mercado abierto: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volumen
$100,611,327Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, brokered April 8 and extended multiple times through April 23, remains in effect as President Trump awaits Tehran's unified proposal amid stalled talks in Pakistan. Tensions persist with US naval blockade and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz, countered by Iran's April 22 attacks on three ships, while an Israel-Lebanon truce was prolonged by three weeks. No major airstrikes or missile barrages have occurred since early April, but both sides prepare for potential resumption if diplomacy fails. Traders monitor upcoming proposal deadlines and negotiation outcomes, which could signal de-escalation or renewed escalation in this protracted conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volumen
$100,611,327Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, brokered April 8 and extended multiple times through April 23, remains in effect as President Trump awaits Tehran's unified proposal amid stalled talks in Pakistan. Tensions persist with US naval blockade and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz, countered by Iran's April 22 attacks on three ships, while an Israel-Lebanon truce was prolonged by three weeks. No major airstrikes or missile barrages have occurred since early April, but both sides prepare for potential resumption if diplomacy fails. Traders monitor upcoming proposal deadlines and negotiation outcomes, which could signal de-escalation or renewed escalation in this protracted conflict.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes