US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in early 2026, including Natanz and Fordow, have destroyed key enrichment centrifuges, weaponization sites, and eliminated senior scientists, setting back Tehran's program by years according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence. A February IAEA report highlighted uncertainty over 400+ kg of 60% enriched uranium possibly buried underground, with inspectors denied access to struck sites amid lost continuity of knowledge. Recent diplomatic signals, including Iran's April envoy statement against restarting high-level enrichment and concessions to ship out stockpiles and suspend activities for five years, reinforce trader consensus implying an 89.4% probability against a nuclear weapon before 2027. Ongoing war-end talks and sanctions pressure limit breakout risks, though IAEA verification remains pending.