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Geopolítica·Parlays

Nothing Ever Happens: May

icon for Nothing Ever Happens: May
Geopolítica·Parlays

Nothing Ever Happens: May

mar 31

abr 30

may 31

dic 31

mar 31

abr 30

may 31

dic 31

60% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
60% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: May" market prices "Yes"—no major triggering events—at 57%, reflecting low perceived risk of the specified black-swan outcomes by May 31, 2026: a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iranian leadership change, WTI crude surging above $150, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russia invading a NATO country. Recent de-escalations include the House passage of DHS funding on April 30, ending a partial shutdown amid immigration disputes, while US-Iran ceasefire talks stalled without a breakthrough or regime shift, as President Trump rejected Tehran's proposal. Ongoing Middle East tensions persist post-February strikes, but no new escalations signal invasion risks; WTI remains stable below thresholds, and Russian forces show no NATO incursions. Upcoming FOMC minutes release poses no direct threat, underscoring the month's uncertain yet calm baseline.

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Volumen
$422
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: May" market prices "Yes"—no major triggering events—at 57%, reflecting low perceived risk of the specified black-swan outcomes by May 31, 2026: a US-Iran permanent peace deal, Iranian leadership change, WTI crude surging above $150, US military action against Cuba, US confirmation of aliens, or Russia invading a NATO country. Recent de-escalations include the House passage of DHS funding on April 30, ending a partial shutdown amid immigration disputes, while US-Iran ceasefire talks stalled without a breakthrough or regime shift, as President Trump rejected Tehran's proposal. Ongoing Middle East tensions persist post-February strikes, but no new escalations signal invasion risks; WTI remains stable below thresholds, and Russian forces show no NATO incursions. Upcoming FOMC minutes release poses no direct threat, underscoring the month's uncertain yet calm baseline.

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Volumen
$422
Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - US x Iran permanent peace deal - Iran leadership change - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US military action against Cuba - US confirms that aliens exist - Russia invades a NATO country Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Nothing Ever Happens: May" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 60% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 60¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 60% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Nothing Ever Happens: May" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 30, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Nothing Ever Happens: May", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Nothing Ever Happens: May" es 60% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 60% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Nothing Ever Happens: May" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.