Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 ships at 99.3% implied probability, reflecting verified reports from US Central Command, UKMTO, and Lloyd's List confirming Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps strikes or seizures of precisely that number of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 amid the US naval blockade initiated in late February. No additional successful targets materialized in the final week despite Iranian threats of retaliation and ongoing ceasefire talks, as maritime traffic remained suppressed and US carrier groups enforced interdictions. This tally aligns with sequential incidents like the April 18 hits on Sanmar Herald and CMA CGM Everglade, solidifying the count. Resolution hinges on official tallies; a late dispute over damage assessments or unverified proxy action could theoretically push toward 10+, but structural barriers including the deadline and de-escalation signals make shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿A cuántos barcos apuntará Irán con éxito antes del 30 de abril?
¿A cuántos barcos apuntará Irán con éxito antes del 30 de abril?
$254,825 Vol.
$254,825 Vol.
30 abr 2026
8–9
99%
10+
1%
$254,825 Vol.
$254,825 Vol.
30 abr 2026
8–9
$34,269 Vol.
99%
10+
$54,085 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 ships at 99.3% implied probability, reflecting verified reports from US Central Command, UKMTO, and Lloyd's List confirming Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps strikes or seizures of precisely that number of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 amid the US naval blockade initiated in late February. No additional successful targets materialized in the final week despite Iranian threats of retaliation and ongoing ceasefire talks, as maritime traffic remained suppressed and US carrier groups enforced interdictions. This tally aligns with sequential incidents like the April 18 hits on Sanmar Herald and CMA CGM Everglade, solidifying the count. Resolution hinges on official tallies; a late dispute over damage assessments or unverified proxy action could theoretically push toward 10+, but structural barriers including the deadline and de-escalation signals make shifts improbable.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volumen
$254,825Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 ships at 99.3% implied probability, reflecting verified reports from US Central Command, UKMTO, and Lloyd's List confirming Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps strikes or seizures of precisely that number of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 amid the US naval blockade initiated in late February. No additional successful targets materialized in the final week despite Iranian threats of retaliation and ongoing ceasefire talks, as maritime traffic remained suppressed and US carrier groups enforced interdictions. This tally aligns with sequential incidents like the April 18 hits on Sanmar Herald and CMA CGM Everglade, solidifying the count. Resolution hinges on official tallies; a late dispute over damage assessments or unverified proxy action could theoretically push toward 10+, but structural barriers including the deadline and de-escalation signals make shifts improbable.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$254,825Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 8–9 ships at 99.3% implied probability, reflecting verified reports from US Central Command, UKMTO, and Lloyd's List confirming Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps strikes or seizures of precisely that number of commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 amid the US naval blockade initiated in late February. No additional successful targets materialized in the final week despite Iranian threats of retaliation and ongoing ceasefire talks, as maritime traffic remained suppressed and US carrier groups enforced interdictions. This tally aligns with sequential incidents like the April 18 hits on Sanmar Herald and CMA CGM Everglade, solidifying the count. Resolution hinges on official tallies; a late dispute over damage assessments or unverified proxy action could theoretically push toward 10+, but structural barriers including the deadline and de-escalation signals make shifts improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes