**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 36 members as of early June 2026 tallies from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery, placing the 36–39 range at the center of trader consensus.** This total includes both outright retirements from public office and moves to seek governorships or Senate seats, with recent announcements from figures such as Darrell Issa, Sam Graves, and others contributing to the count. The elevated pace reflects a broader wave of exits in the 119th Congress, exceeding historical midterm averages and linked to factors including narrow GOP margins, redistricting effects in several states, and member frustration with legislative gridlock. Additional departures remain possible ahead of state filing deadlines, yet the current trajectory and absence of a sudden surge keep probabilities concentrated in the mid-30s while lower and higher bins trade at single-digit or low-double-digit levels.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
36–39 58.5%
24–27 22.0%
44+ 11.9%
32–35 6.0%
$62,849 Vol.
$62,849 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
2%
24–27
22%
28–31
4%
32–35
11%
36–39
59%
40–43
6%
44+
8%
36–39 58.5%
24–27 22.0%
44+ 11.9%
32–35 6.0%
$62,849 Vol.
$62,849 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
$5,917 Vol.
2%
24–27
$19,700 Vol.
22%
28–31
$23,052 Vol.
4%
32–35
$5,046 Vol.
11%
36–39
$3,334 Vol.
59%
40–43
$2,658 Vol.
6%
44+
$3,143 Vol.
8%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 36 members as of early June 2026 tallies from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery, placing the 36–39 range at the center of trader consensus.**
This total includes both outright retirements from public office and moves to seek governorships or Senate seats, with recent announcements from figures such as Darrell Issa, Sam Graves, and others contributing to the count. The elevated pace reflects a broader wave of exits in the 119th Congress, exceeding historical midterm averages and linked to factors including narrow GOP margins, redistricting effects in several states, and member frustration with legislative gridlock.
Additional departures remain possible ahead of state filing deadlines, yet the current trajectory and absence of a sudden surge keep probabilities concentrated in the mid-30s while lower and higher bins trade at single-digit or low-double-digit levels.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$62,849Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 36 members as of early June 2026 tallies from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery, placing the 36–39 range at the center of trader consensus.**
This total includes both outright retirements from public office and moves to seek governorships or Senate seats, with recent announcements from figures such as Darrell Issa, Sam Graves, and others contributing to the count. The elevated pace reflects a broader wave of exits in the 119th Congress, exceeding historical midterm averages and linked to factors including narrow GOP margins, redistricting effects in several states, and member frustration with legislative gridlock.
Additional departures remain possible ahead of state filing deadlines, yet the current trajectory and absence of a sudden surge keep probabilities concentrated in the mid-30s while lower and higher bins trade at single-digit or low-double-digit levels.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$62,849Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House retirements and departures have reached 36 members as of early June 2026 tallies from Ballotpedia and the House Press Gallery, placing the 36–39 range at the center of trader consensus.** This total includes both outright retirements from public office and moves to seek governorships or Senate seats, with recent announcements from figures such as Darrell Issa, Sam Graves, and others contributing to the count. The elevated pace reflects a broader wave of exits in the 119th Congress, exceeding historical midterm averages and linked to factors including narrow GOP margins, redistricting effects in several states, and member frustration with legislative gridlock. Additional departures remain possible ahead of state filing deadlines, yet the current trajectory and absence of a sudden surge keep probabilities concentrated in the mid-30s while lower and higher bins trade at single-digit or low-double-digit levels.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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