**As of mid-June 2026, 36 House Republicans have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, placing the total squarely inside the market's leading 36–39 bin.** Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking, corroborated by House Press Gallery data, confirm this count of GOP departures (versus 22 Democrats), driven by a combination of full retirements from public office and bids for higher office such as governor or Senate seats. This figure already exceeds the 2018 record of 34 Republican exits and reflects an unusually early and broad wave of announcements throughout late 2025 and early 2026. Contributing factors include legislative gridlock in a narrowly divided chamber, term-limit pressures on committee roles, personal and family considerations, and opportunities to pursue statewide races. With filing deadlines still approaching in several states and the possibility of additional late announcements, traders have priced the 36–39 range as the consensus outcome while assigning lower probability to significantly lower or higher totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
¿Cuántos miembros republicanos de la Cámara de Representantes no se postularán en 2026?
36–39 57.6%
44+ 11.9%
32–35 6.0%
40–43 5.5%
$62,838 Vol.
$62,838 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
2%
24–27
22%
28–31
4%
32–35
11%
36–39
58%
40–43
5%
44+
9%
36–39 57.6%
44+ 11.9%
32–35 6.0%
40–43 5.5%
$62,838 Vol.
$62,838 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<24
$5,917 Vol.
2%
24–27
$19,688 Vol.
22%
28–31
$23,052 Vol.
4%
32–35
$5,046 Vol.
11%
36–39
$3,334 Vol.
58%
40–43
$2,658 Vol.
5%
44+
$3,143 Vol.
9%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-June 2026, 36 House Republicans have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, placing the total squarely inside the market's leading 36–39 bin.**
Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking, corroborated by House Press Gallery data, confirm this count of GOP departures (versus 22 Democrats), driven by a combination of full retirements from public office and bids for higher office such as governor or Senate seats. This figure already exceeds the 2018 record of 34 Republican exits and reflects an unusually early and broad wave of announcements throughout late 2025 and early 2026.
Contributing factors include legislative gridlock in a narrowly divided chamber, term-limit pressures on committee roles, personal and family considerations, and opportunities to pursue statewide races. With filing deadlines still approaching in several states and the possibility of additional late announcements, traders have priced the 36–39 range as the consensus outcome while assigning lower probability to significantly lower or higher totals.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volumen
$62,838Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-June 2026, 36 House Republicans have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, placing the total squarely inside the market's leading 36–39 bin.**
Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking, corroborated by House Press Gallery data, confirm this count of GOP departures (versus 22 Democrats), driven by a combination of full retirements from public office and bids for higher office such as governor or Senate seats. This figure already exceeds the 2018 record of 34 Republican exits and reflects an unusually early and broad wave of announcements throughout late 2025 and early 2026.
Contributing factors include legislative gridlock in a narrowly divided chamber, term-limit pressures on committee roles, personal and family considerations, and opportunities to pursue statewide races. With filing deadlines still approaching in several states and the possibility of additional late announcements, traders have priced the 36–39 range as the consensus outcome while assigning lower probability to significantly lower or higher totals.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$62,838Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of mid-June 2026, 36 House Republicans have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, placing the total squarely inside the market's leading 36–39 bin.** Ballotpedia and Wikipedia tracking, corroborated by House Press Gallery data, confirm this count of GOP departures (versus 22 Democrats), driven by a combination of full retirements from public office and bids for higher office such as governor or Senate seats. This figure already exceeds the 2018 record of 34 Republican exits and reflects an unusually early and broad wave of announcements throughout late 2025 and early 2026. Contributing factors include legislative gridlock in a narrowly divided chamber, term-limit pressures on committee roles, personal and family considerations, and opportunities to pursue statewide races. With filing deadlines still approaching in several states and the possibility of additional late announcements, traders have priced the 36–39 range as the consensus outcome while assigning lower probability to significantly lower or higher totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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