Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range forecasts for Miami's May 10 high, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converging on 88-93°F amid a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting sunny skies and efficient afternoon heating. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks at 88-89°F if onshore flow strengthens early, versus 92-93°F under prolonged light winds and high humidity amplifying heat index; isolated pop-up thunderstorms pose a minor risk of cloud cover lowering outcomes to 86°F or below. Recent South Florida highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, above the 86°F climatological normal, have held steady without major disruptions, but new 12Z model runs and morning soundings tomorrow will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.