Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 9 at Shuangliu International Airport, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and converging global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project a midday peak of 28–29°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds capping further warming. Preliminary observations through early afternoon align precisely, with air temperatures hovering near this threshold amid 60–70% humidity that suppresses extreme highs. Typical early-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin—averaging 26–28°C—reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen convective burst triggering 30°C+ late in the day, though model ensembles deem this improbable; final official daily data from CMA expected post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 9?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 9?
29°C 100.0%
30°C <1%
31°C or higher <1%
$85,829 Vol.
$85,829 Vol.
9 may 2026
29°C
100%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
29°C 100.0%
30°C <1%
31°C or higher <1%
$85,829 Vol.
$85,829 Vol.
9 may 2026
29°C
$12,731 Vol.
100%
30°C
$11,918 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$7,323 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 9 at Shuangliu International Airport, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and converging global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project a midday peak of 28–29°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds capping further warming. Preliminary observations through early afternoon align precisely, with air temperatures hovering near this threshold amid 60–70% humidity that suppresses extreme highs. Typical early-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin—averaging 26–28°C—reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen convective burst triggering 30°C+ late in the day, though model ensembles deem this improbable; final official daily data from CMA expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 7, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$85,829Fecha de finalización
9 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 7, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 9 at Shuangliu International Airport, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and converging global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project a midday peak of 28–29°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds capping further warming. Preliminary observations through early afternoon align precisely, with air temperatures hovering near this threshold amid 60–70% humidity that suppresses extreme highs. Typical early-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin—averaging 26–28°C—reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen convective burst triggering 30°C+ late in the day, though model ensembles deem this improbable; final official daily data from CMA expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$85,829Fecha de finalización
9 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 7, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Chengdu's highest temperature reaching exactly 29°C on May 9 at Shuangliu International Airport, driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration forecast and converging global models like GFS and ECMWF, which project a midday peak of 28–29°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate southerly winds capping further warming. Preliminary observations through early afternoon align precisely, with air temperatures hovering near this threshold amid 60–70% humidity that suppresses extreme highs. Typical early-May climatology in the Sichuan Basin—averaging 26–28°C—reinforces this positioning. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen convective burst triggering 30°C+ late in the day, though model ensembles deem this improbable; final official daily data from CMA expected post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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