Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Madrid's highest temperature on May 10, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 15–18°C (top outcomes at 21% for 17°C, 20.5% for 15°C) due to conflicting ECMWF and GFS ensemble runs showing a spread from persistent cloud cover and scattered showers. AEMET's latest guidance points to a maximum near 19°C under overcast skies and 80% rain probability, cooler than the May climatological average of 22°C, as a polar air mass brings instability and reduced insolation. Key differentiators include precipitation timing—earlier clearing favors 18°C+, while prolonged fronts support 15–16°C— with new model updates expected every 12 hours potentially shifting odds before resolution.