Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the narrow spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, projecting Istanbul's highest temperature on May 10 at 21-23°C amid a warming trend following a cool early-May northerly airflow that capped prior highs below 15°C. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance supports partly cloudy skies with highs clustering around 22°C, tempered by Marmara Sea breezes limiting peak heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and urban heat island amplification across Istanbul stations, yielding genuine uncertainty in the exact integer degree. Watch MGM's May 9 update and hourly data for refined peak timing, as resolution hinges on official airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 10?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 10?
21°C 32%
20°C 30%
22°C 21%
19°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 may 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
13%
20°C
30%
21°C
32%
22°C
21%
23°C
11%
24°C
2%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 32%
20°C 30%
22°C 21%
19°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 may 2026
15°C or below
$1,282 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$521 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$401 Vol.
1%
18°C
$461 Vol.
1%
19°C
$406 Vol.
13%
20°C
$190 Vol.
30%
21°C
$135 Vol.
32%
22°C
$518 Vol.
21%
23°C
$827 Vol.
11%
24°C
$872 Vol.
2%
25°C or higher
$737 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the narrow spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, projecting Istanbul's highest temperature on May 10 at 21-23°C amid a warming trend following a cool early-May northerly airflow that capped prior highs below 15°C. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance supports partly cloudy skies with highs clustering around 22°C, tempered by Marmara Sea breezes limiting peak heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and urban heat island amplification across Istanbul stations, yielding genuine uncertainty in the exact integer degree. Watch MGM's May 9 update and hourly data for refined peak timing, as resolution hinges on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ET
Volumen
$6,347Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the narrow spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, projecting Istanbul's highest temperature on May 10 at 21-23°C amid a warming trend following a cool early-May northerly airflow that capped prior highs below 15°C. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance supports partly cloudy skies with highs clustering around 22°C, tempered by Marmara Sea breezes limiting peak heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and urban heat island amplification across Istanbul stations, yielding genuine uncertainty in the exact integer degree. Watch MGM's May 9 update and hourly data for refined peak timing, as resolution hinges on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$6,347Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the narrow spread in latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, projecting Istanbul's highest temperature on May 10 at 21-23°C amid a warming trend following a cool early-May northerly airflow that capped prior highs below 15°C. The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance supports partly cloudy skies with highs clustering around 22°C, tempered by Marmara Sea breezes limiting peak heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon cloud cover and urban heat island amplification across Istanbul stations, yielding genuine uncertainty in the exact integer degree. Watch MGM's May 9 update and hourly data for refined peak timing, as resolution hinges on official airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes