Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 56% implied probability in the FL-14 House race, driven by incumbent Kathy Castor's proven strength, including her 57% win in 2024 and $716,000 cash on hand as of late March. The district's Cook PVI of D+5 and Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin this edge, despite a rightward shift—Kamala Harris won by under eight points in 2024 after Biden's 19-point margin. Recent Florida legislative approval of Gov. DeSantis' new congressional map last week added conservative areas like Brandon, boosting Republican odds to 37.5% amid a crowded primary featuring 2024 nominee Robert Rochford. Democratic and Republican primaries are August 18, with no general polling yet.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes FL-14
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes FL-14
$18,919 Vol.
$18,919 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
56%
Partido Republicano
41%
$18,919 Vol.
$18,919 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$8,415 Vol.
56%
Partido Republicano
$10,504 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 56% implied probability in the FL-14 House race, driven by incumbent Kathy Castor's proven strength, including her 57% win in 2024 and $716,000 cash on hand as of late March. The district's Cook PVI of D+5 and Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin this edge, despite a rightward shift—Kamala Harris won by under eight points in 2024 after Biden's 19-point margin. Recent Florida legislative approval of Gov. DeSantis' new congressional map last week added conservative areas like Brandon, boosting Republican odds to 37.5% amid a crowded primary featuring 2024 nominee Robert Rochford. Democratic and Republican primaries are August 18, with no general polling yet.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volumen
$18,919Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 56% implied probability in the FL-14 House race, driven by incumbent Kathy Castor's proven strength, including her 57% win in 2024 and $716,000 cash on hand as of late March. The district's Cook PVI of D+5 and Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin this edge, despite a rightward shift—Kamala Harris won by under eight points in 2024 after Biden's 19-point margin. Recent Florida legislative approval of Gov. DeSantis' new congressional map last week added conservative areas like Brandon, boosting Republican odds to 37.5% amid a crowded primary featuring 2024 nominee Robert Rochford. Democratic and Republican primaries are August 18, with no general polling yet.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$18,919Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Democratic Party at 56% implied probability in the FL-14 House race, driven by incumbent Kathy Castor's proven strength, including her 57% win in 2024 and $716,000 cash on hand as of late March. The district's Cook PVI of D+5 and Solid Democratic ratings from Cook Political Report and others underpin this edge, despite a rightward shift—Kamala Harris won by under eight points in 2024 after Biden's 19-point margin. Recent Florida legislative approval of Gov. DeSantis' new congressional map last week added conservative areas like Brandon, boosting Republican odds to 37.5% amid a crowded primary featuring 2024 nominee Robert Rochford. Democratic and Republican primaries are August 18, with no general polling yet.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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