Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-April, driven by mutual blockades amid the US-Iran conflict. Iran restricted access since late February 2026 war escalation, imposing selective corridors limited to Iran-linked vessels, while the US enacted a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting April 13, deterring international shipping. Ship-tracking data from late April confirms minimal activity—3-9 vessels daily on April 26-30, mostly dry cargo or tankers tied to Tehran, per Bloomberg and Windward reports. Recent IRGC seizures of two container ships on April 22 and US boardings underscore persistent risks. Reversal would require diplomatic de-escalation, such as mutual blockade lifts or ceasefire expansion, though stalled talks leave low odds for surge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el Estrecho de Ormuz a finales de abril?
¿Promedio de naves que transitan por el Estrecho de Ormuz a finales de abril?
0-10 98.2%
10-20 1.8%
40-50 <1%
20-30 <1%
$230,976 Vol.
$230,976 Vol.
30 abr 2026
0-10
98%
10-20
2%
20-30
<1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 98.2%
10-20 1.8%
40-50 <1%
20-30 <1%
$230,976 Vol.
$230,976 Vol.
30 abr 2026
0-10
$66,907 Vol.
98%
10-20
$30,756 Vol.
2%
20-30
$20,073 Vol.
<1%
30-40
$14,264 Vol.
<1%
40-50
$16,328 Vol.
<1%
50-60
$20,076 Vol.
<1%
60+
$62,574 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-April, driven by mutual blockades amid the US-Iran conflict. Iran restricted access since late February 2026 war escalation, imposing selective corridors limited to Iran-linked vessels, while the US enacted a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting April 13, deterring international shipping. Ship-tracking data from late April confirms minimal activity—3-9 vessels daily on April 26-30, mostly dry cargo or tankers tied to Tehran, per Bloomberg and Windward reports. Recent IRGC seizures of two container ships on April 22 and US boardings underscore persistent risks. Reversal would require diplomatic de-escalation, such as mutual blockade lifts or ceasefire expansion, though stalled talks leave low odds for surge.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
Volumen
$230,976Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-April, driven by mutual blockades amid the US-Iran conflict. Iran restricted access since late February 2026 war escalation, imposing selective corridors limited to Iran-linked vessels, while the US enacted a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting April 13, deterring international shipping. Ship-tracking data from late April confirms minimal activity—3-9 vessels daily on April 26-30, mostly dry cargo or tankers tied to Tehran, per Bloomberg and Windward reports. Recent IRGC seizures of two container ships on April 22 and US boardings underscore persistent risks. Reversal would require diplomatic de-escalation, such as mutual blockade lifts or ceasefire expansion, though stalled talks leave low odds for surge.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$230,976Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 1:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by end-April, driven by mutual blockades amid the US-Iran conflict. Iran restricted access since late February 2026 war escalation, imposing selective corridors limited to Iran-linked vessels, while the US enacted a naval blockade on Iranian ports starting April 13, deterring international shipping. Ship-tracking data from late April confirms minimal activity—3-9 vessels daily on April 26-30, mostly dry cargo or tankers tied to Tehran, per Bloomberg and Windward reports. Recent IRGC seizures of two container ships on April 22 and US boardings underscore persistent risks. Reversal would require diplomatic de-escalation, such as mutual blockade lifts or ceasefire expansion, though stalled talks leave low odds for surge.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes