Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to "No" on President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official White House announcements, public statements, or institutional pressures signaling an early exit midway through his second term. Recent administration turnover—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's departure on April 20 and EAC Commissioner Donald Palmer's resignation this week—has prompted Democratic commentary on an "imploding" cabinet, yet Trump shows no intention of stepping down, as affirmed by Attorney General Pam Bondi's recent statement that he will "probably" serve out his term. With no active impeachment proceedings or legal challenges forcing resignation, traders discount partisan speculation amid stable leadership; odds could shift via late-breaking scandals, health events, or post-midterm dynamics in November 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$431,570 Vol.
$431,570 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$431,570 Vol.
$431,570 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to "No" on President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official White House announcements, public statements, or institutional pressures signaling an early exit midway through his second term. Recent administration turnover—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's departure on April 20 and EAC Commissioner Donald Palmer's resignation this week—has prompted Democratic commentary on an "imploding" cabinet, yet Trump shows no intention of stepping down, as affirmed by Attorney General Pam Bondi's recent statement that he will "probably" serve out his term. With no active impeachment proceedings or legal challenges forcing resignation, traders discount partisan speculation amid stable leadership; odds could shift via late-breaking scandals, health events, or post-midterm dynamics in November 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Volume
$431,570End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to "No" on President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official White House announcements, public statements, or institutional pressures signaling an early exit midway through his second term. Recent administration turnover—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's departure on April 20 and EAC Commissioner Donald Palmer's resignation this week—has prompted Democratic commentary on an "imploding" cabinet, yet Trump shows no intention of stepping down, as affirmed by Attorney General Pam Bondi's recent statement that he will "probably" serve out his term. With no active impeachment proceedings or legal challenges forcing resignation, traders discount partisan speculation amid stable leadership; odds could shift via late-breaking scandals, health events, or post-midterm dynamics in November 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$431,570End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus assigns a 93.5% implied probability to "No" on President Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any official White House announcements, public statements, or institutional pressures signaling an early exit midway through his second term. Recent administration turnover—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's departure on April 20 and EAC Commissioner Donald Palmer's resignation this week—has prompted Democratic commentary on an "imploding" cabinet, yet Trump shows no intention of stepping down, as affirmed by Attorney General Pam Bondi's recent statement that he will "probably" serve out his term. With no active impeachment proceedings or legal challenges forcing resignation, traders discount partisan speculation amid stable leadership; odds could shift via late-breaking scandals, health events, or post-midterm dynamics in November 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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