**President Trump’s explicit January 21, 2026, Davos statement ruling out military force or tariffs to acquire Greenland has anchored trader expectations against any U.S. invasion this year.** Earlier rhetoric in January, including references to obtaining the territory “one way or the other” and discussing military options, briefly raised concerns, but the reversal shifted focus to negotiations. Denmark, Greenland’s government, and NATO allies have uniformly rejected any forcible takeover, noting that military action against a NATO member would invoke Article 5 obligations against the United States and risk fracturing the alliance. Bipartisan U.S. lawmakers have highlighted these alliance and legal barriers, while ongoing bilateral talks since May 2026 center on expanding existing U.S. military arrangements at Thule Air Base and related infrastructure rather than sovereignty changes. Greenland and Denmark continue to affirm the territory is not for sale and emphasize self-determination. With no military planning requested for an invasion and all verifiable developments pointing to diplomatic or economic channels, traders assign overwhelming probability to “No.” Resolution would require confirmed U.S. military operations inside Greenland before year-end.