Trader consensus implying a 78% probability of no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the absence of full-scale ground operations or occupations following early-year targeted actions, such as the January special forces raid capturing Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and March advisory support to Ecuador against drug organizations misidentified as a cartel camp. Pentagon statements in mid-March explicitly denied preparations for a Cuba invasion amid the island's warnings of resistance, while President Trump's foreign policy has emphasized multilateral coalitions like the Shield of the Americas summit—urging regional militaries to combat cartels—over unilateral escalation. International condemnation of the Venezuela intervention, including UN Security Council debates, and domestic congressional scrutiny on unauthorized actions further deter broader military commitments through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$213,409 Vol.
$213,409 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$213,409 Vol.
$213,409 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus implying a 78% probability of no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the absence of full-scale ground operations or occupations following early-year targeted actions, such as the January special forces raid capturing Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and March advisory support to Ecuador against drug organizations misidentified as a cartel camp. Pentagon statements in mid-March explicitly denied preparations for a Cuba invasion amid the island's warnings of resistance, while President Trump's foreign policy has emphasized multilateral coalitions like the Shield of the Americas summit—urging regional militaries to combat cartels—over unilateral escalation. International condemnation of the Venezuela intervention, including UN Security Council debates, and domestic congressional scrutiny on unauthorized actions further deter broader military commitments through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$213,409End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus implying a 78% probability of no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the absence of full-scale ground operations or occupations following early-year targeted actions, such as the January special forces raid capturing Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and March advisory support to Ecuador against drug organizations misidentified as a cartel camp. Pentagon statements in mid-March explicitly denied preparations for a Cuba invasion amid the island's warnings of resistance, while President Trump's foreign policy has emphasized multilateral coalitions like the Shield of the Americas summit—urging regional militaries to combat cartels—over unilateral escalation. International condemnation of the Venezuela intervention, including UN Security Council debates, and domestic congressional scrutiny on unauthorized actions further deter broader military commitments through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$213,409End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implying a 78% probability of no U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the absence of full-scale ground operations or occupations following early-year targeted actions, such as the January special forces raid capturing Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro and March advisory support to Ecuador against drug organizations misidentified as a cartel camp. Pentagon statements in mid-March explicitly denied preparations for a Cuba invasion amid the island's warnings of resistance, while President Trump's foreign policy has emphasized multilateral coalitions like the Shield of the Americas summit—urging regional militaries to combat cartels—over unilateral escalation. International condemnation of the Venezuela intervention, including UN Security Council debates, and domestic congressional scrutiny on unauthorized actions further deter broader military commitments through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions