The U.S. conducted a targeted January 3, 2026, special operations raid in Venezuela (Operation Absolute Resolve) that captured Nicolás Maduro via limited airstrikes and ground forces, framed officially as enforcement of drug-trafficking charges rather than regime change or territorial occupation. Subsequent months have featured continued maritime interdictions against alleged narco-vessels, joint counter-cartel actions with Ecuadorian forces in March, and heightened security coordination with Mexico under existing bilateral frameworks, without escalation to new ground invasions or sustained occupations. Administration statements have emphasized pressure on migration, fentanyl flows, and external influence through sanctions, tariffs, and diplomacy over additional kinetic entries. With the resolution window now past mid-year and no comparable military actions reported elsewhere in the region, traders assess further invasions in 2026 as unlikely under current policy trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$226,756 Vol.
$226,756 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$226,756 Vol.
$226,756 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. conducted a targeted January 3, 2026, special operations raid in Venezuela (Operation Absolute Resolve) that captured Nicolás Maduro via limited airstrikes and ground forces, framed officially as enforcement of drug-trafficking charges rather than regime change or territorial occupation. Subsequent months have featured continued maritime interdictions against alleged narco-vessels, joint counter-cartel actions with Ecuadorian forces in March, and heightened security coordination with Mexico under existing bilateral frameworks, without escalation to new ground invasions or sustained occupations. Administration statements have emphasized pressure on migration, fentanyl flows, and external influence through sanctions, tariffs, and diplomacy over additional kinetic entries. With the resolution window now past mid-year and no comparable military actions reported elsewhere in the region, traders assess further invasions in 2026 as unlikely under current policy trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$226,756End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The U.S. conducted a targeted January 3, 2026, special operations raid in Venezuela (Operation Absolute Resolve) that captured Nicolás Maduro via limited airstrikes and ground forces, framed officially as enforcement of drug-trafficking charges rather than regime change or territorial occupation. Subsequent months have featured continued maritime interdictions against alleged narco-vessels, joint counter-cartel actions with Ecuadorian forces in March, and heightened security coordination with Mexico under existing bilateral frameworks, without escalation to new ground invasions or sustained occupations. Administration statements have emphasized pressure on migration, fentanyl flows, and external influence through sanctions, tariffs, and diplomacy over additional kinetic entries. With the resolution window now past mid-year and no comparable military actions reported elsewhere in the region, traders assess further invasions in 2026 as unlikely under current policy trajectories.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$226,756End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. conducted a targeted January 3, 2026, special operations raid in Venezuela (Operation Absolute Resolve) that captured Nicolás Maduro via limited airstrikes and ground forces, framed officially as enforcement of drug-trafficking charges rather than regime change or territorial occupation. Subsequent months have featured continued maritime interdictions against alleged narco-vessels, joint counter-cartel actions with Ecuadorian forces in March, and heightened security coordination with Mexico under existing bilateral frameworks, without escalation to new ground invasions or sustained occupations. Administration statements have emphasized pressure on migration, fentanyl flows, and external influence through sanctions, tariffs, and diplomacy over additional kinetic entries. With the resolution window now past mid-year and no comparable military actions reported elsewhere in the region, traders assess further invasions in 2026 as unlikely under current policy trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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