Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability that Russia will not capture the specified intersection in Verkhnia Tersa by May 31, driven by Ukraine's fortified defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's Huliaipole direction, which have held firm since 2022 despite months of intense Russian assaults. As of April 28, Ukrainian military observer Bohdan Myroshnykov reported Russian forces failing to secure any foothold amid heavy fighting, consistent with Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessments showing Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Hulyaipole disrupting Russian naval infantry redeployments and logistics. Overall Russian advances remain marginal—averaging under 2 sq km daily—facing drone strikes and overstretched lines, with no confirmed breach of the key coordinates on ISW maps as the deadline nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png
Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png
Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability that Russia will not capture the specified intersection in Verkhnia Tersa by May 31, driven by Ukraine's fortified defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's Huliaipole direction, which have held firm since 2022 despite months of intense Russian assaults. As of April 28, Ukrainian military observer Bohdan Myroshnykov reported Russian forces failing to secure any foothold amid heavy fighting, consistent with Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessments showing Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Hulyaipole disrupting Russian naval infantry redeployments and logistics. Overall Russian advances remain marginal—averaging under 2 sq km daily—facing drone strikes and overstretched lines, with no confirmed breach of the key coordinates on ISW maps as the deadline nears.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png
Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png
Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png
Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png
Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Apr 20, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Volume
$2,265End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png
Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png
Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability that Russia will not capture the specified intersection in Verkhnia Tersa by May 31, driven by Ukraine's fortified defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's Huliaipole direction, which have held firm since 2022 despite months of intense Russian assaults. As of April 28, Ukrainian military observer Bohdan Myroshnykov reported Russian forces failing to secure any foothold amid heavy fighting, consistent with Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessments showing Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Hulyaipole disrupting Russian naval infantry redeployments and logistics. Overall Russian advances remain marginal—averaging under 2 sq km daily—facing drone strikes and overstretched lines, with no confirmed breach of the key coordinates on ISW maps as the deadline nears.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png
Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png
Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa1.png
Intersection Location in Verkhnia Tersa: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa2.png
Verkhnia Tersa Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Verkhnia+Tersa3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/LDrTndGD6rVRfBnB9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$2,265End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 20, 2026, 3:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 90% implied probability that Russia will not capture the specified intersection in Verkhnia Tersa by May 31, driven by Ukraine's fortified defenses in Zaporizhzhia Oblast's Huliaipole direction, which have held firm since 2022 despite months of intense Russian assaults. As of April 28, Ukrainian military observer Bohdan Myroshnykov reported Russian forces failing to secure any foothold amid heavy fighting, consistent with Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessments showing Ukrainian counterattacks northwest of Hulyaipole disrupting Russian naval infantry redeployments and logistics. Overall Russian advances remain marginal—averaging under 2 sq km daily—facing drone strikes and overstretched lines, with no confirmed breach of the key coordinates on ISW maps as the deadline nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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