US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, state that Chinese leaders currently lack plans or a fixed timeline for invading Taiwan and favor sustained coercive measures such as military exercises, air and naval incursions, economic pressure, and diplomatic isolation over kinetic action. This view aligns with the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or official statements indicating imminent operations in recent months, despite continued gray-zone activity around the Taiwan Strait and outlying islands. Traders price the near-term outcome at 97.1% for no invasion by September 30, 2026, reflecting these structural constraints and the high costs of rapid escalation. Even at this elevated consensus level, an unforeseen trigger such as a major cross-strait incident, abrupt leadership directive, or rapid deterioration in deterrence calculations could still shift probabilities within the narrow resolution window.