Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 5.5%, driven by the absence of observable PLA mobilizations, amphibious exercises, or escalatory signals in recent weeks despite ongoing cross-strait tensions. Beijing's latest actions emphasize gray-zone coercion, including unprecedented pressure on African nations to deny overflight rights to President Lai Ching-te's plane on April 21, forcing cancellation of his Eswatini visit, and a 10-point integration plan unveiled after KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping, promoting economic ties with offshore islands Kinmen and Matsu. Taiwan's legislature stalls a $40 billion defense budget amid partisan divides, while formidable amphibious barriers and U.S. deterrence sustain low invasion risks absent major shifts like sudden military buildups or diplomatic breakdowns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$465,173 Vol.
$465,173 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$465,173 Vol.
$465,173 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 5.5%, driven by the absence of observable PLA mobilizations, amphibious exercises, or escalatory signals in recent weeks despite ongoing cross-strait tensions. Beijing's latest actions emphasize gray-zone coercion, including unprecedented pressure on African nations to deny overflight rights to President Lai Ching-te's plane on April 21, forcing cancellation of his Eswatini visit, and a 10-point integration plan unveiled after KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping, promoting economic ties with offshore islands Kinmen and Matsu. Taiwan's legislature stalls a $40 billion defense budget amid partisan divides, while formidable amphibious barriers and U.S. deterrence sustain low invasion risks absent major shifts like sudden military buildups or diplomatic breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Volume
$465,173End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 5.5%, driven by the absence of observable PLA mobilizations, amphibious exercises, or escalatory signals in recent weeks despite ongoing cross-strait tensions. Beijing's latest actions emphasize gray-zone coercion, including unprecedented pressure on African nations to deny overflight rights to President Lai Ching-te's plane on April 21, forcing cancellation of his Eswatini visit, and a 10-point integration plan unveiled after KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping, promoting economic ties with offshore islands Kinmen and Matsu. Taiwan's legislature stalls a $40 billion defense budget amid partisan divides, while formidable amphibious barriers and U.S. deterrence sustain low invasion risks absent major shifts like sudden military buildups or diplomatic breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$465,173End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30 at just 5.5%, driven by the absence of observable PLA mobilizations, amphibious exercises, or escalatory signals in recent weeks despite ongoing cross-strait tensions. Beijing's latest actions emphasize gray-zone coercion, including unprecedented pressure on African nations to deny overflight rights to President Lai Ching-te's plane on April 21, forcing cancellation of his Eswatini visit, and a 10-point integration plan unveiled after KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's April 10 meeting with Xi Jinping, promoting economic ties with offshore islands Kinmen and Matsu. Taiwan's legislature stalls a $40 billion defense budget amid partisan divides, while formidable amphibious barriers and U.S. deterrence sustain low invasion risks absent major shifts like sudden military buildups or diplomatic breakdowns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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