Trader consensus prices a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 at low risk, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by a March U.S. intelligence assessment that Beijing lacks current plans for a 2027 invasion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that have weakened operational readiness for complex amphibious operations. Routine tensions persist, including Chinese warships near Taiwan's Penghu Islands and a Japanese destroyer transiting the Taiwan Strait on April 20—prompting verbal rebukes from Beijing but no escalation to combat. China defended its April military activities around Taiwan as "justified," while diplomatic channels remain open and economic interdependence deters aggression, though NATO warnings highlight risks of coordinated moves with Russia. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or intensified drills could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,746,320 Vol.
$1,746,320 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$1,746,320 Vol.
$1,746,320 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 at low risk, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by a March U.S. intelligence assessment that Beijing lacks current plans for a 2027 invasion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that have weakened operational readiness for complex amphibious operations. Routine tensions persist, including Chinese warships near Taiwan's Penghu Islands and a Japanese destroyer transiting the Taiwan Strait on April 20—prompting verbal rebukes from Beijing but no escalation to combat. China defended its April military activities around Taiwan as "justified," while diplomatic channels remain open and economic interdependence deters aggression, though NATO warnings highlight risks of coordinated moves with Russia. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or intensified drills could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,746,320End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 at low risk, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by a March U.S. intelligence assessment that Beijing lacks current plans for a 2027 invasion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that have weakened operational readiness for complex amphibious operations. Routine tensions persist, including Chinese warships near Taiwan's Penghu Islands and a Japanese destroyer transiting the Taiwan Strait on April 20—prompting verbal rebukes from Beijing but no escalation to combat. China defended its April military activities around Taiwan as "justified," while diplomatic channels remain open and economic interdependence deters aggression, though NATO warnings highlight risks of coordinated moves with Russia. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or intensified drills could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,746,320End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 at low risk, with "No" implying 89.5% probability, driven by a March U.S. intelligence assessment that Beijing lacks current plans for a 2027 invasion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that have weakened operational readiness for complex amphibious operations. Routine tensions persist, including Chinese warships near Taiwan's Penghu Islands and a Japanese destroyer transiting the Taiwan Strait on April 20—prompting verbal rebukes from Beijing but no escalation to combat. China defended its April military activities around Taiwan as "justified," while diplomatic channels remain open and economic interdependence deters aggression, though NATO warnings highlight risks of coordinated moves with Russia. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or intensified drills could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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