Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to retain the WI-06 House seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his history of double-digit victories, including 61% in 2024. No public polls exist, but Grothman's fundraising dominance—$700,000 cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like Bradley Smith amid a fragmented eight-candidate field ahead of the August 11 primaries. Independents Michael Thurow and Elizabeth Fitzgibbon pose limited threats in this solidly Republican battleground, with ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball affirming a safe hold barring unforeseen scandals or national wave shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-06 House Election Winner
WI-06 House Election Winner
$17,058 Vol.
$17,058 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
82%
Democratic Party
19%
$17,058 Vol.
$17,058 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,731 Vol.
82%
Democratic Party
$7,327 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to retain the WI-06 House seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his history of double-digit victories, including 61% in 2024. No public polls exist, but Grothman's fundraising dominance—$700,000 cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like Bradley Smith amid a fragmented eight-candidate field ahead of the August 11 primaries. Independents Michael Thurow and Elizabeth Fitzgibbon pose limited threats in this solidly Republican battleground, with ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball affirming a safe hold barring unforeseen scandals or national wave shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$17,058End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to retain the WI-06 House seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his history of double-digit victories, including 61% in 2024. No public polls exist, but Grothman's fundraising dominance—$700,000 cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like Bradley Smith amid a fragmented eight-candidate field ahead of the August 11 primaries. Independents Michael Thurow and Elizabeth Fitzgibbon pose limited threats in this solidly Republican battleground, with ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball affirming a safe hold barring unforeseen scandals or national wave shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,058End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman leads trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability to retain the WI-06 House seat in the November 2026 general election, reflecting the district's R+8 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his history of double-digit victories, including 61% in 2024. No public polls exist, but Grothman's fundraising dominance—$700,000 cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs Democratic primary contenders like Bradley Smith amid a fragmented eight-candidate field ahead of the August 11 primaries. Independents Michael Thurow and Elizabeth Fitzgibbon pose limited threats in this solidly Republican battleground, with ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball affirming a safe hold barring unforeseen scandals or national wave shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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