Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman holds a commanding position in solidly Republican Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District, where trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability of a GOP hold driven by the district's partisan lean, his long tenure since 2015, and historical incumbency advantages in safe seats. A crowded Democratic primary featuring candidates like Brad Smith, who recently gained endorsements from dropped rivals such as Mike Heidenreich, risks vote-splitting ahead of the August 11 primaries, while independents like firefighter Mike Thurow pose minimal threat per Cook Political Report assessments. No recent polling exists, but recent local editorials criticizing Grothman have not shifted fundamentals, with general election on November 3. Late scandals or national midterm waves could alter odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-06 House Election Winner
WI-06 House Election Winner
$17,067 Vol.
$17,067 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
17%
$17,067 Vol.
$17,067 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,740 Vol.
84%
Democratic Party
$7,327 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman holds a commanding position in solidly Republican Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District, where trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability of a GOP hold driven by the district's partisan lean, his long tenure since 2015, and historical incumbency advantages in safe seats. A crowded Democratic primary featuring candidates like Brad Smith, who recently gained endorsements from dropped rivals such as Mike Heidenreich, risks vote-splitting ahead of the August 11 primaries, while independents like firefighter Mike Thurow pose minimal threat per Cook Political Report assessments. No recent polling exists, but recent local editorials criticizing Grothman have not shifted fundamentals, with general election on November 3. Late scandals or national midterm waves could alter odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$17,067End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman holds a commanding position in solidly Republican Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District, where trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability of a GOP hold driven by the district's partisan lean, his long tenure since 2015, and historical incumbency advantages in safe seats. A crowded Democratic primary featuring candidates like Brad Smith, who recently gained endorsements from dropped rivals such as Mike Heidenreich, risks vote-splitting ahead of the August 11 primaries, while independents like firefighter Mike Thurow pose minimal threat per Cook Political Report assessments. No recent polling exists, but recent local editorials criticizing Grothman have not shifted fundamentals, with general election on November 3. Late scandals or national midterm waves could alter odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,067End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Glenn Grothman holds a commanding position in solidly Republican Wisconsin's 6th Congressional District, where trader consensus reflects an 81.5% implied probability of a GOP hold driven by the district's partisan lean, his long tenure since 2015, and historical incumbency advantages in safe seats. A crowded Democratic primary featuring candidates like Brad Smith, who recently gained endorsements from dropped rivals such as Mike Heidenreich, risks vote-splitting ahead of the August 11 primaries, while independents like firefighter Mike Thurow pose minimal threat per Cook Political Report assessments. No recent polling exists, but recent local editorials criticizing Grothman have not shifted fundamentals, with general election on November 3. Late scandals or national midterm waves could alter odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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