Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk as the name President Trump is most likely to verbally mention in a public recording before the April 30 deadline, reflecting their ongoing collaboration on government efficiency initiatives. Recent cabinet shakeups—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's April 20 resignation amid misconduct allegations and Navy Secretary John Phelan's April 22 departure—have boosted odds for potential successors like Tom Homan and Karoline Leavitt amid speculation on replacements. Trump's April 17 Turning Point USA speech criticizing Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Rand Paul over spending bill opposition elevated their profiles, while FIFA President Gianni Infantino's April 14 ICE raid request and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Iran policy rebukes added international angles. No qualifying mentions occurred at the April 25 White House Correspondents' Dinner or April 27 King Charles III meeting, with traders watching final press conferences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$119,532 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bolsonaro
7%
Delcy
9%
Machado
6%
Leavitt
6%
Gianni / Infantino
6%
Paxton
5%
Homan
4%
Massie
4%
Friedrich / Merz
3%
Rand Paul
3%
Zohran / Mamdani
3%
Talarico
3%
Bernie
1%
Nicki / Minaj
<1%
Kavanaugh
<1%
Elon / Musk
48%
$119,532 Vol.
Bolsonaro
$3,347 Vol.
7%
Delcy
$803 Vol.
9%
Machado
$598 Vol.
6%
Leavitt
$1,039 Vol.
6%
Gianni / Infantino
$1,445 Vol.
6%
Paxton
$3,159 Vol.
5%
Homan
$2,535 Vol.
4%
Massie
$3,299 Vol.
4%
Friedrich / Merz
$1,129 Vol.
3%
Rand Paul
$1,189 Vol.
3%
Zohran / Mamdani
$1,331 Vol.
3%
Talarico
$3,840 Vol.
3%
Bernie
$1,499 Vol.
1%
Nicki / Minaj
$2,049 Vol.
<1%
Kavanaugh
$772 Vol.
<1%
Elon / Musk
$592 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk as the name President Trump is most likely to verbally mention in a public recording before the April 30 deadline, reflecting their ongoing collaboration on government efficiency initiatives. Recent cabinet shakeups—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's April 20 resignation amid misconduct allegations and Navy Secretary John Phelan's April 22 departure—have boosted odds for potential successors like Tom Homan and Karoline Leavitt amid speculation on replacements. Trump's April 17 Turning Point USA speech criticizing Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Rand Paul over spending bill opposition elevated their profiles, while FIFA President Gianni Infantino's April 14 ICE raid request and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Iran policy rebukes added international angles. No qualifying mentions occurred at the April 25 White House Correspondents' Dinner or April 27 King Charles III meeting, with traders watching final press conferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$119,532End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk as the name President Trump is most likely to verbally mention in a public recording before the April 30 deadline, reflecting their ongoing collaboration on government efficiency initiatives. Recent cabinet shakeups—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's April 20 resignation amid misconduct allegations and Navy Secretary John Phelan's April 22 departure—have boosted odds for potential successors like Tom Homan and Karoline Leavitt amid speculation on replacements. Trump's April 17 Turning Point USA speech criticizing Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Rand Paul over spending bill opposition elevated their profiles, while FIFA President Gianni Infantino's April 14 ICE raid request and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Iran policy rebukes added international angles. No qualifying mentions occurred at the April 25 White House Correspondents' Dinner or April 27 King Charles III meeting, with traders watching final press conferences.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count.
If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).
A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Volume
$119,532End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Elon Musk as the name President Trump is most likely to verbally mention in a public recording before the April 30 deadline, reflecting their ongoing collaboration on government efficiency initiatives. Recent cabinet shakeups—Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's April 20 resignation amid misconduct allegations and Navy Secretary John Phelan's April 22 departure—have boosted odds for potential successors like Tom Homan and Karoline Leavitt amid speculation on replacements. Trump's April 17 Turning Point USA speech criticizing Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Rand Paul over spending bill opposition elevated their profiles, while FIFA President Gianni Infantino's April 14 ICE raid request and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Iran policy rebukes added international angles. No qualifying mentions occurred at the April 25 White House Correspondents' Dinner or April 27 King Charles III meeting, with traders watching final press conferences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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