Trader consensus favors Anthropic at 50.5% implied probability for the top AI model on the LMArena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which secured the #1 spot with superior coding, document reasoning, and overall Elo scores around 1500+, outpacing rivals in community-driven evaluations. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds a strong #2 at 96.1 quality score and leads reasoning benchmarks, supporting its 32.5% odds amid rumors of Gemini 3.2. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 shines in long-context tasks but trails in main Arena rankings, explaining its 8.5% share, while open models like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 (top open in code) and DeepSeek V4 intensify competition. Upcoming model drops could shift dynamics before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 51%
Google 32%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.1%
$1,423,978 Vol.
$1,423,978 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
51%
32%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Z.ai
2%
Meta
2%
ByteDance
2%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 51%
Google 32%
OpenAI 9%
xAI 3.1%
$1,423,978 Vol.
$1,423,978 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$26,319 Vol.
51%
$17,191 Vol.
32%
OpenAI
$47,850 Vol.
9%
xAI
$12,277 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$199,790 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$412,044 Vol.
2%
Meta
$5,980 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$12,490 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$17,231 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$269,063 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$134,722 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$203,122 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$51,975 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$6,443 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$7,488 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus favors Anthropic at 50.5% implied probability for the top AI model on the LMArena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which secured the #1 spot with superior coding, document reasoning, and overall Elo scores around 1500+, outpacing rivals in community-driven evaluations. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds a strong #2 at 96.1 quality score and leads reasoning benchmarks, supporting its 32.5% odds amid rumors of Gemini 3.2. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 shines in long-context tasks but trails in main Arena rankings, explaining its 8.5% share, while open models like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 (top open in code) and DeepSeek V4 intensify competition. Upcoming model drops could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$1,423,978End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus favors Anthropic at 50.5% implied probability for the top AI model on the LMArena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which secured the #1 spot with superior coding, document reasoning, and overall Elo scores around 1500+, outpacing rivals in community-driven evaluations. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds a strong #2 at 96.1 quality score and leads reasoning benchmarks, supporting its 32.5% odds amid rumors of Gemini 3.2. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 shines in long-context tasks but trails in main Arena rankings, explaining its 8.5% share, while open models like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 (top open in code) and DeepSeek V4 intensify competition. Upcoming model drops could shift dynamics before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,423,978End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Anthropic at 50.5% implied probability for the top AI model on the LMArena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which secured the #1 spot with superior coding, document reasoning, and overall Elo scores around 1500+, outpacing rivals in community-driven evaluations. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro holds a strong #2 at 96.1 quality score and leads reasoning benchmarks, supporting its 32.5% odds amid rumors of Gemini 3.2. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 shines in long-context tasks but trails in main Arena rankings, explaining its 8.5% share, while open models like Z.ai's GLM-5.1 (top open in code) and DeepSeek V4 intensify competition. Upcoming model drops could shift dynamics before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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