Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model's stable third-place ranking on the LMArena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard—with an Elo score around 1493—behind frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.x variants and OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5, which reclaimed the top spot last week via superior reasoning benchmarks. No major releases or leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, including Baidu's Ernie-5.1 Preview debuting at #13 on April 29, solidifying Gemini's position amid low vote volume near the noon ET resolution snapshot. Realistic challenges include a surge in user votes elevating a trailing Anthropic model past Gemini or an unforeseen late entry, though such volatility is improbable given historical Arena dynamics and proximity to close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Mistral <1%
Baidu <1%
$1,092,009 Vol.
$1,092,009 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
100%
Anthropic
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
xAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Google 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Mistral <1%
Baidu <1%
$1,092,009 Vol.
$1,092,009 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$159,348 Vol.
100%
Anthropic
$346,549 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$15,246 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$26,383 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$104,795 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$100,958 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$41,993 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$29,772 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$15,541 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$32,614 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$34,831 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$39,567 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$22,189 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$110,437 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$12,852 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model's stable third-place ranking on the LMArena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard—with an Elo score around 1493—behind frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.x variants and OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5, which reclaimed the top spot last week via superior reasoning benchmarks. No major releases or leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, including Baidu's Ernie-5.1 Preview debuting at #13 on April 29, solidifying Gemini's position amid low vote volume near the noon ET resolution snapshot. Realistic challenges include a surge in user votes elevating a trailing Anthropic model past Gemini or an unforeseen late entry, though such volatility is improbable given historical Arena dynamics and proximity to close.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,092,009End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model's stable third-place ranking on the LMArena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard—with an Elo score around 1493—behind frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.x variants and OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5, which reclaimed the top spot last week via superior reasoning benchmarks. No major releases or leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, including Baidu's Ernie-5.1 Preview debuting at #13 on April 29, solidifying Gemini's position amid low vote volume near the noon ET resolution snapshot. Realistic challenges include a surge in user votes elevating a trailing Anthropic model past Gemini or an unforeseen late entry, though such volatility is improbable given historical Arena dynamics and proximity to close.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$1,092,009End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.4% implied probability to Google holding the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, driven by its Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview model's stable third-place ranking on the LMArena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard—with an Elo score around 1493—behind frontrunners like Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.x variants and OpenAI's newly released GPT-5.5, which reclaimed the top spot last week via superior reasoning benchmarks. No major releases or leaderboard shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, including Baidu's Ernie-5.1 Preview debuting at #13 on April 29, solidifying Gemini's position amid low vote volume near the noon ET resolution snapshot. Realistic challenges include a surge in user votes elevating a trailing Anthropic model past Gemini or an unforeseen late entry, though such volatility is improbable given historical Arena dynamics and proximity to close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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