Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16, 2026, has solidified its lead on the Arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard (no style control)—the key resolution source for this market—propelling trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for Anthropic as the top Math AI model by April 30, 12:00 PM ET. The model's superior crowd-sourced performance in complex mathematical reasoning, including 96.25% on AIME benchmarks and edges over OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, reflects enhanced agentic capabilities and reasoning depth amid intensifying AI competition. While strong positioning stems from verified leaderboard dominance, realistic challenges include last-minute rival model evaluations or voting shifts before snapshot, potentially altering rankings in this dynamic benchmark landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$694,618 Vol.
$694,618 Vol.

Anthropic
100%

OpenAI
<1%

xAI
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meituan
<1%

<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$694,618 Vol.
$694,618 Vol.

Anthropic
100%

OpenAI
<1%

xAI
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meituan
<1%

<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 release on April 16, 2026, has solidified its lead on the Arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard (no style control)—the key resolution source for this market—propelling trader consensus to a 100% implied probability for Anthropic as the top Math AI model by April 30, 12:00 PM ET. The model's superior crowd-sourced performance in complex mathematical reasoning, including 96.25% on AIME benchmarks and edges over OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, reflects enhanced agentic capabilities and reasoning depth amid intensifying AI competition. While strong positioning stems from verified leaderboard dominance, realistic challenges include last-minute rival model evaluations or voting shifts before snapshot, potentially altering rankings in this dynamic benchmark landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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