Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 100% implied probability of owning the top Math AI model as of April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant #1 ranking on the Chatbot Arena Text Math leaderboard—the market's key resolution source featuring crowd-sourced battles on complex mathematical reasoning with style control off. Released April 16, the model leverages agentic enhancements for multistep problem-solving, achieving 96.25% on AIME competition problems and superior MATH dataset scores over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. While locked in at near-certainty, realistic challenges include a surprise rival model release or late user voting shifts before the 12:00 PM ET snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$694,618 Vol.
$694,618 Vol.

Anthropic
100%

OpenAI
<1%

xAI
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meituan
<1%

<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 100.0%
OpenAI <1%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$694,618 Vol.
$694,618 Vol.

Anthropic
100%

OpenAI
<1%

xAI
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meituan
<1%

<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 2, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 100% implied probability of owning the top Math AI model as of April 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's dominant #1 ranking on the Chatbot Arena Text Math leaderboard—the market's key resolution source featuring crowd-sourced battles on complex mathematical reasoning with style control off. Released April 16, the model leverages agentic enhancements for multistep problem-solving, achieving 96.25% on AIME competition problems and superior MATH dataset scores over rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro. While locked in at near-certainty, realistic challenges include a surprise rival model release or late user voting shifts before the 12:00 PM ET snapshot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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