Anthropic commands a 64.1% implied probability on Polymarket for fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which seized the #1 spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena with ~1504 Elo overall and 1583 in coding—outpacing prior leaders via superior agentic reasoning and SWE-bench scores at 82%. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds 26.5% trader consensus as the chief rival, buoyed by multimodal strengths and historical rapid iteration, while OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 advances in long-context tasks lifted it to 6.5% amid tighter frontier competition. xAI trails at 2.4% post-Grok updates. With two months to resolution, watch for lab announcements or benchmark shifts from these closed-source giants, as product timelines remain fluid.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 64.3%
Google 27%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 2.4%
$5,080,458 Vol.
$5,080,458 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
64%
27%
OpenAI
7%
xAI
2%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 64.3%
Google 27%
OpenAI 7%
xAI 2.4%
$5,080,458 Vol.
$5,080,458 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$776,216 Vol.
64%
$470,749 Vol.
27%
OpenAI
$277,563 Vol.
7%
xAI
$986,922 Vol.
2%
Meta
$92,050 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$465,407 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$437,277 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$89,437 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$94,870 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$318,468 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$314,078 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$268,241 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$114,206 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$299,314 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$104,195 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 64.1% implied probability on Polymarket for fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which seized the #1 spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena with ~1504 Elo overall and 1583 in coding—outpacing prior leaders via superior agentic reasoning and SWE-bench scores at 82%. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds 26.5% trader consensus as the chief rival, buoyed by multimodal strengths and historical rapid iteration, while OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 advances in long-context tasks lifted it to 6.5% amid tighter frontier competition. xAI trails at 2.4% post-Grok updates. With two months to resolution, watch for lab announcements or benchmark shifts from these closed-source giants, as product timelines remain fluid.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,080,458End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic commands a 64.1% implied probability on Polymarket for fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which seized the #1 spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena with ~1504 Elo overall and 1583 in coding—outpacing prior leaders via superior agentic reasoning and SWE-bench scores at 82%. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds 26.5% trader consensus as the chief rival, buoyed by multimodal strengths and historical rapid iteration, while OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 advances in long-context tasks lifted it to 6.5% amid tighter frontier competition. xAI trails at 2.4% post-Grok updates. With two months to resolution, watch for lab announcements or benchmark shifts from these closed-source giants, as product timelines remain fluid.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5,080,458End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic commands a 64.1% implied probability on Polymarket for fielding the top AI model by June 30, propelled by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release, which seized the #1 spot on LMSYS Chatbot Arena with ~1504 Elo overall and 1583 in coding—outpacing prior leaders via superior agentic reasoning and SWE-bench scores at 82%. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview holds 26.5% trader consensus as the chief rival, buoyed by multimodal strengths and historical rapid iteration, while OpenAI's recent GPT-5.5 advances in long-context tasks lifted it to 6.5% amid tighter frontier competition. xAI trails at 2.4% post-Grok updates. With two months to resolution, watch for lab announcements or benchmark shifts from these closed-source giants, as product timelines remain fluid.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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