Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito dominates trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability for the West Virginia Republican Senate primary on May 12, driven by her massive fundraising edge—$5 million cash on hand as of late March versus Tom Willis's $90,000 and Alexander Gaaserud's $1,260—and prior 83% primary win in 2020 amid weak opposition. Recent April coverage highlighted fringe challengers like Willis running to Capito's right on policy grounds, but no polls indicate momentum, reinforcing her incumbency advantage in the deep-red state. Low-odds shifts could arise from a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected turnout surge, though historical base rates favor incumbents decisively.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedShelley Moore Capito 99.3%
Tom Willis 1.0%
Alexander Gaasserud <1%
$28,608 Vol.
$28,608 Vol.
May 12, 2026
Shelley Moore Capito
99%
Tom Willis
1%
Alexander Gaasserud
<1%
Shelley Moore Capito 99.3%
Tom Willis 1.0%
Alexander Gaasserud <1%
$28,608 Vol.
$28,608 Vol.
May 12, 2026
Shelley Moore Capito
$8,415 Vol.
99%
Tom Willis
$14,429 Vol.
1%
Alexander Gaasserud
$5,763 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.
If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito dominates trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability for the West Virginia Republican Senate primary on May 12, driven by her massive fundraising edge—$5 million cash on hand as of late March versus Tom Willis's $90,000 and Alexander Gaaserud's $1,260—and prior 83% primary win in 2020 amid weak opposition. Recent April coverage highlighted fringe challengers like Willis running to Capito's right on policy grounds, but no polls indicate momentum, reinforcing her incumbency advantage in the deep-red state. Low-odds shifts could arise from a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected turnout surge, though historical base rates favor incumbents decisively.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.
If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$28,608End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.
If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito dominates trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability for the West Virginia Republican Senate primary on May 12, driven by her massive fundraising edge—$5 million cash on hand as of late March versus Tom Willis's $90,000 and Alexander Gaaserud's $1,260—and prior 83% primary win in 2020 amid weak opposition. Recent April coverage highlighted fringe challengers like Willis running to Capito's right on policy grounds, but no polls indicate momentum, reinforcing her incumbency advantage in the deep-red state. Low-odds shifts could arise from a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected turnout surge, though historical base rates favor incumbents decisively.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.
If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$28,608End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent U.S. Senator Shelley Moore Capito dominates trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability for the West Virginia Republican Senate primary on May 12, driven by her massive fundraising edge—$5 million cash on hand as of late March versus Tom Willis's $90,000 and Alexander Gaaserud's $1,260—and prior 83% primary win in 2020 amid weak opposition. Recent April coverage highlighted fringe challengers like Willis running to Capito's right on policy grounds, but no polls indicate momentum, reinforcing her incumbency advantage in the deep-red state. Low-odds shifts could arise from a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected turnout surge, though historical base rates favor incumbents decisively.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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