Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva earlier this year that yielded little progress amid irreconcilable demands—Russia's insistence on territorial recognition of annexed regions and Ukrainian demilitarization versus Kyiv's call for full withdrawal. Recent developments, including President Trump's April 29 call urging Putin to end the war and German Chancellor Merz's suggestion of Ukrainian land concessions for peace, have not bridged the gap, following a temporary Orthodox Easter ceasefire that expired without advancement. With positions entrenched and no scheduled summits imminent, traders price only slim odds of resolution before the deadline, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or escalation could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$105,407 Vol.
$105,407 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$105,407 Vol.
$105,407 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva earlier this year that yielded little progress amid irreconcilable demands—Russia's insistence on territorial recognition of annexed regions and Ukrainian demilitarization versus Kyiv's call for full withdrawal. Recent developments, including President Trump's April 29 call urging Putin to end the war and German Chancellor Merz's suggestion of Ukrainian land concessions for peace, have not bridged the gap, following a temporary Orthodox Easter ceasefire that expired without advancement. With positions entrenched and no scheduled summits imminent, traders price only slim odds of resolution before the deadline, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or escalation could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$105,407End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva earlier this year that yielded little progress amid irreconcilable demands—Russia's insistence on territorial recognition of annexed regions and Ukrainian demilitarization versus Kyiv's call for full withdrawal. Recent developments, including President Trump's April 29 call urging Putin to end the war and German Chancellor Merz's suggestion of Ukrainian land concessions for peace, have not bridged the gap, following a temporary Orthodox Easter ceasefire that expired without advancement. With positions entrenched and no scheduled summits imminent, traders price only slim odds of resolution before the deadline, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or escalation could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,407End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva earlier this year that yielded little progress amid irreconcilable demands—Russia's insistence on territorial recognition of annexed regions and Ukrainian demilitarization versus Kyiv's call for full withdrawal. Recent developments, including President Trump's April 29 call urging Putin to end the war and German Chancellor Merz's suggestion of Ukrainian land concessions for peace, have not bridged the gap, following a temporary Orthodox Easter ceasefire that expired without advancement. With positions entrenched and no scheduled summits imminent, traders price only slim odds of resolution before the deadline, though a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or escalation could shift sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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