Persistent gaps on territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality continue to block any Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, sustaining trader consensus that no deal will be signed by June 30. Despite Zelenskyy's early June open letter proposing an immediate frontline ceasefire and bilateral summit, Russian officials have shown no reciprocal movement, while strikes and incremental battlefield advances persist into mid-June. US-mediated talks earlier in 2026, including Geneva sessions, produced no breakthroughs on Russia's core demands. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of verified diplomatic momentum or battlefield shifts that would compel rapid concessions underpins the 97.5% implied probability for No. A sudden bilateral meeting or external pressure could theoretically alter the timeline, though structural obstacles make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$697,915 Vol.
$697,915 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$697,915 Vol.
$697,915 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent gaps on territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality continue to block any Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, sustaining trader consensus that no deal will be signed by June 30. Despite Zelenskyy's early June open letter proposing an immediate frontline ceasefire and bilateral summit, Russian officials have shown no reciprocal movement, while strikes and incremental battlefield advances persist into mid-June. US-mediated talks earlier in 2026, including Geneva sessions, produced no breakthroughs on Russia's core demands. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of verified diplomatic momentum or battlefield shifts that would compel rapid concessions underpins the 97.5% implied probability for No. A sudden bilateral meeting or external pressure could theoretically alter the timeline, though structural obstacles make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$697,915End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent gaps on territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality continue to block any Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, sustaining trader consensus that no deal will be signed by June 30. Despite Zelenskyy's early June open letter proposing an immediate frontline ceasefire and bilateral summit, Russian officials have shown no reciprocal movement, while strikes and incremental battlefield advances persist into mid-June. US-mediated talks earlier in 2026, including Geneva sessions, produced no breakthroughs on Russia's core demands. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of verified diplomatic momentum or battlefield shifts that would compel rapid concessions underpins the 97.5% implied probability for No. A sudden bilateral meeting or external pressure could theoretically alter the timeline, though structural obstacles make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$697,915End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent gaps on territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality continue to block any Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, sustaining trader consensus that no deal will be signed by June 30. Despite Zelenskyy's early June open letter proposing an immediate frontline ceasefire and bilateral summit, Russian officials have shown no reciprocal movement, while strikes and incremental battlefield advances persist into mid-June. US-mediated talks earlier in 2026, including Geneva sessions, produced no breakthroughs on Russia's core demands. With only two weeks remaining, the absence of verified diplomatic momentum or battlefield shifts that would compel rapid concessions underpins the 97.5% implied probability for No. A sudden bilateral meeting or external pressure could theoretically alter the timeline, though structural obstacles make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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