Recent escalations have strained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire established in April 2026 and extended indefinitely by President Trump. Direct exchanges of fire in early June, including Iranian missile strikes on Israel and US strikes following the downing of an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, have prompted Trump to state that US forces would “hit them hard again.” Negotiations over nuclear limits, Hormuz access, and sanctions remain stalled amid Iranian demands for concessions and US insistence on verifiable limits. Israel-Iran clashes and Lebanon-linked tensions have further complicated diplomacy, with Trump publicly urging pauses while maintaining a naval blockade. These violations and mixed signals on talks represent the primary drivers of trader focus on potential ceasefire termination announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
$1,645,049 Vol.
Jun 16, 2026
June 12
6%
June 15
17%
June 30
31%
$1,645,049 Vol.
June 12
$896,066 Vol.
6%
June 15
$505,873 Vol.
17%
June 30
$244,135 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Recent escalations have strained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire established in April 2026 and extended indefinitely by President Trump. Direct exchanges of fire in early June, including Iranian missile strikes on Israel and US strikes following the downing of an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, have prompted Trump to state that US forces would “hit them hard again.” Negotiations over nuclear limits, Hormuz access, and sanctions remain stalled amid Iranian demands for concessions and US insistence on verifiable limits. Israel-Iran clashes and Lebanon-linked tensions have further complicated diplomacy, with Trump publicly urging pauses while maintaining a naval blockade. These violations and mixed signals on talks represent the primary drivers of trader focus on potential ceasefire termination announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET
Volume
$1,645,049End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.Recent escalations have strained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire established in April 2026 and extended indefinitely by President Trump. Direct exchanges of fire in early June, including Iranian missile strikes on Israel and US strikes following the downing of an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, have prompted Trump to state that US forces would “hit them hard again.” Negotiations over nuclear limits, Hormuz access, and sanctions remain stalled amid Iranian demands for concessions and US insistence on verifiable limits. Israel-Iran clashes and Lebanon-linked tensions have further complicated diplomacy, with Trump publicly urging pauses while maintaining a naval blockade. These violations and mixed signals on talks represent the primary drivers of trader focus on potential ceasefire termination announcements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volume
$1,645,049End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent escalations have strained the fragile US-Iran ceasefire established in April 2026 and extended indefinitely by President Trump. Direct exchanges of fire in early June, including Iranian missile strikes on Israel and US strikes following the downing of an American helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, have prompted Trump to state that US forces would “hit them hard again.” Negotiations over nuclear limits, Hormuz access, and sanctions remain stalled amid Iranian demands for concessions and US insistence on verifiable limits. Israel-Iran clashes and Lebanon-linked tensions have further complicated diplomacy, with Trump publicly urging pauses while maintaining a naval blockade. These violations and mixed signals on talks represent the primary drivers of trader focus on potential ceasefire termination announcements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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