Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent April polls from Ipsos, Indikator, and Novus show the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) leading at 32-34%, projecting 120 Riksdag seats versus 72 for Sweden Democrats (SD) and 66 for Moderates (M), cementing trader consensus at 91.5% for S as the parliamentary election winner on September 13. The opposition Red-Green bloc (S, Left Party, Greens, Centre) holds a 7-10 point advantage over the incumbent Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, SD support), fueled by government struggles including a narrow win on stricter citizenship rules and a spring budget with fuel tax cuts. While S's double-digit lead mirrors historical poll-to-outcome patterns for largest-party status, a late escalation in immigration tensions boosting SD or an unforeseen S scandal could shift dynamics before election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent April polls from Ipsos, Indikator, and Novus show the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) leading at 32-34%, projecting 120 Riksdag seats versus 72 for Sweden Democrats (SD) and 66 for Moderates (M), cementing trader consensus at 91.5% for S as the parliamentary election winner on September 13. The opposition Red-Green bloc (S, Left Party, Greens, Centre) holds a 7-10 point advantage over the incumbent Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, SD support), fueled by government struggles including a narrow win on stricter citizenship rules and a spring budget with fuel tax cuts. While S's double-digit lead mirrors historical poll-to-outcome patterns for largest-party status, a late escalation in immigration tensions boosting SD or an unforeseen S scandal could shift dynamics before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 28 2026
Renewed polling and political analysis confirm Social Democrats' lead amid right-wing coalition tensions, pushing market
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 92%3%
Renewed polling and political analysis confirm Social Democrats' lead amid right-wing coalition tensions, pushing market
Apr 2 2026
Reports emerge of irritation among Christian Democrats and Liberals over Kristersson’s promise to give Sweden Democrats control over migration and integration portfolios,
Sweden Democrats (SD) dips to 5%1%
Reports emerge of irritation among Christian Democrats and Liberals over Kristersson’s promise to give Sweden Democrats control over migration and integration portfolios, indicating coalition frictions that may undermine SD’s perceived stability in government
Apr 1 2026
Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson states Moderate Party aims to form majority government with Sweden Democrats if winning election
Moderate Party (M) dips to 3%3%
Kristersson's public commitment to a coalition with the controversial Sweden Democrats clarified the party's strategy but may have limited broader appeal, reflected in the
Apr 1 2026
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson offers deal to include far-right Sweden Democrats in government with ministerial posts if coalition wins, raising concerns about right bloc
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 89%3%
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson offers deal to include far-right Sweden Democrats in government with ministerial posts if coalition wins, raising concerns about right bloc cohesion and boosting Social Democrats' relative appeal
Apr 1 2026
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson publicly states that the Moderates will form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats if they win the September election, promising SD
Sweden Democrats (SD) rises to 5%1%
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson publicly states that the Moderates will form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats if they win the September election, promising SD significant ministerial responsibility, especially on immigration, which polarizes public opinion and causes some market uncertainty
Mar 19 2026
Former Liberal minister Birgitta Ohlsson announces she will run for the Centre Party, criticizing the Liberals’ decision to allow Sweden Democrats ministerial roles, highlighting
Sweden Democrats (SD) dips to 7%1%
Former Liberal minister Birgitta Ohlsson announces she will run for the Centre Party, criticizing the Liberals’ decision to allow Sweden Democrats ministerial roles, highlighting political tensions within the right bloc
Mar 13 2026
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce agreement removing red lines against cooperation, signaling potential right-wing coalition instability and benefiting Social Democrats as
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) dips to 89%1%
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce agreement removing red lines against cooperation, signaling potential right-wing coalition instability and benefiting Social Democrats as opposition
Mar 13 2026
The Liberals announce an agreement with the Sweden Democrats to remove previous red lines against cooperating in a future right-of-centre coalition, boosting SD’s prospects of
Sweden Democrats (SD) dips to 8%3%
The Liberals announce an agreement with the Sweden Democrats to remove previous red lines against cooperating in a future right-of-centre coalition, boosting SD’s prospects of government participation but also causing mixed reactions among voters
Mar 13 2026
"The Sweden Promise": Liberals and Sweden Democrats agree to remove red lines for coalition cooperation, welcomed by Moderate Party leaders including PM Ulf Kristersson
Moderate Party (M) dips to 3%1%
This agreement clarified coalition possibilities on the right but also highlighted the complex dynamics and reliance on Sweden Democrats, which may have tempered enthusiasm for a Moderate majority, contributing to a slight
Feb 3 2026
Moderate Party
Moderate Party (M) rises to 6%3%
A slight recovery in polling and possible positive political signals in early February caused a temporary
Jan 25 2026
Indikator Opinion poll highlights the importance of the 4% electoral threshold and direct mandates, with Socialdemokraterna maintaining a strong position, supporting expectations
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 92%3%
Indikator Opinion poll highlights the importance of the 4% electoral threshold and direct mandates, with Socialdemokraterna maintaining a strong position, supporting expectations of a parliamentary plurality
Dec 16 2025
Demoskop opinion poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 33.6% support, ahead of right-wing parties, projecting 123 seats in the Riksdag, reinforcing market confidence in S's
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) jumps to 87%7%
Demoskop opinion poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 33.6% support, ahead of right-wing parties, projecting 123 seats in the Riksdag, reinforcing market confidence in S's chances
Dec 16 2025
Demoskop poll confirms Socialdemokraterna lead with 33.6%, Moderaterna at 16.8%
Moderate Party (M) dips to 0%3%
Further polling reinforced the Moderate Party's weaker position relative to the leading parties, pushing the market
Dec 14 2025
Ipsos poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 34%, Moderaterna at 18%, trailing behind Sverigedemokraterna at 22%
Moderate Party (M) plunges to 3%18%
This poll confirmed the Moderate Party's position behind the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats, contributing to the sharp
Dec 4 2025
Two Sweden Democrats MPs resign from the party, reducing SD’s parliamentary group to 70 members, signaling internal instability and weakening their position ahead of the election
Sweden Democrats (SD) drops to 11%11%
Two Sweden Democrats MPs resign from the party, reducing SD’s parliamentary group to 70 members, signaling internal instability and weakening their position ahead of the election
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent April polls from Ipsos, Indikator, and Novus show the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) leading at 32-34%, projecting 120 Riksdag seats versus 72 for Sweden Democrats (SD) and 66 for Moderates (M), cementing trader consensus at 91.5% for S as the parliamentary election winner on September 13. The opposition Red-Green bloc (S, Left Party, Greens, Centre) holds a 7-10 point advantage over the incumbent Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, SD support), fueled by government struggles including a narrow win on stricter citizenship rules and a spring budget with fuel tax cuts. While S's double-digit lead mirrors historical poll-to-outcome patterns for largest-party status, a late escalation in immigration tensions boosting SD or an unforeseen S scandal could shift dynamics before election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent April polls from Ipsos, Indikator, and Novus show the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) leading at 32-34%, projecting 120 Riksdag seats versus 72 for Sweden Democrats (SD) and 66 for Moderates (M), cementing trader consensus at 91.5% for S as the parliamentary election winner on September 13. The opposition Red-Green bloc (S, Left Party, Greens, Centre) holds a 7-10 point advantage over the incumbent Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, SD support), fueled by government struggles including a narrow win on stricter citizenship rules and a spring budget with fuel tax cuts. While S's double-digit lead mirrors historical poll-to-outcome patterns for largest-party status, a late escalation in immigration tensions boosting SD or an unforeseen S scandal could shift dynamics before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Apr 28 2026
Renewed polling and political analysis confirm Social Democrats' lead amid right-wing coalition tensions, pushing market
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 92%3%
Renewed polling and political analysis confirm Social Democrats' lead amid right-wing coalition tensions, pushing market
Apr 2 2026
Reports emerge of irritation among Christian Democrats and Liberals over Kristersson’s promise to give Sweden Democrats control over migration and integration portfolios,
Sweden Democrats (SD) dips to 5%1%
Reports emerge of irritation among Christian Democrats and Liberals over Kristersson’s promise to give Sweden Democrats control over migration and integration portfolios, indicating coalition frictions that may undermine SD’s perceived stability in government
Apr 1 2026
Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson states Moderate Party aims to form majority government with Sweden Democrats if winning election
Moderate Party (M) dips to 3%3%
Kristersson's public commitment to a coalition with the controversial Sweden Democrats clarified the party's strategy but may have limited broader appeal, reflected in the
Apr 1 2026
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson offers deal to include far-right Sweden Democrats in government with ministerial posts if coalition wins, raising concerns about right bloc
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 89%3%
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson offers deal to include far-right Sweden Democrats in government with ministerial posts if coalition wins, raising concerns about right bloc cohesion and boosting Social Democrats' relative appeal
Apr 1 2026
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson publicly states that the Moderates will form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats if they win the September election, promising SD
Sweden Democrats (SD) rises to 5%1%
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson publicly states that the Moderates will form a majority government with the Sweden Democrats if they win the September election, promising SD significant ministerial responsibility, especially on immigration, which polarizes public opinion and causes some market uncertainty
Mar 19 2026
Former Liberal minister Birgitta Ohlsson announces she will run for the Centre Party, criticizing the Liberals’ decision to allow Sweden Democrats ministerial roles, highlighting
Sweden Democrats (SD) dips to 7%1%
Former Liberal minister Birgitta Ohlsson announces she will run for the Centre Party, criticizing the Liberals’ decision to allow Sweden Democrats ministerial roles, highlighting political tensions within the right bloc
Mar 13 2026
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce agreement removing red lines against cooperation, signaling potential right-wing coalition instability and benefiting Social Democrats as
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) dips to 89%1%
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce agreement removing red lines against cooperation, signaling potential right-wing coalition instability and benefiting Social Democrats as opposition
Mar 13 2026
The Liberals announce an agreement with the Sweden Democrats to remove previous red lines against cooperating in a future right-of-centre coalition, boosting SD’s prospects of
Sweden Democrats (SD) dips to 8%3%
The Liberals announce an agreement with the Sweden Democrats to remove previous red lines against cooperating in a future right-of-centre coalition, boosting SD’s prospects of government participation but also causing mixed reactions among voters
Mar 13 2026
"The Sweden Promise": Liberals and Sweden Democrats agree to remove red lines for coalition cooperation, welcomed by Moderate Party leaders including PM Ulf Kristersson
Moderate Party (M) dips to 3%1%
This agreement clarified coalition possibilities on the right but also highlighted the complex dynamics and reliance on Sweden Democrats, which may have tempered enthusiasm for a Moderate majority, contributing to a slight
Feb 3 2026
Moderate Party
Moderate Party (M) rises to 6%3%
A slight recovery in polling and possible positive political signals in early February caused a temporary
Jan 25 2026
Indikator Opinion poll highlights the importance of the 4% electoral threshold and direct mandates, with Socialdemokraterna maintaining a strong position, supporting expectations
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) rises to 92%3%
Indikator Opinion poll highlights the importance of the 4% electoral threshold and direct mandates, with Socialdemokraterna maintaining a strong position, supporting expectations of a parliamentary plurality
Dec 16 2025
Demoskop opinion poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 33.6% support, ahead of right-wing parties, projecting 123 seats in the Riksdag, reinforcing market confidence in S's
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) jumps to 87%7%
Demoskop opinion poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 33.6% support, ahead of right-wing parties, projecting 123 seats in the Riksdag, reinforcing market confidence in S's chances
Dec 16 2025
Demoskop poll confirms Socialdemokraterna lead with 33.6%, Moderaterna at 16.8%
Moderate Party (M) dips to 0%3%
Further polling reinforced the Moderate Party's weaker position relative to the leading parties, pushing the market
Dec 14 2025
Ipsos poll shows Socialdemokraterna leading with 34%, Moderaterna at 18%, trailing behind Sverigedemokraterna at 22%
Moderate Party (M) plunges to 3%18%
This poll confirmed the Moderate Party's position behind the Social Democrats and Sweden Democrats, contributing to the sharp
Dec 4 2025
Two Sweden Democrats MPs resign from the party, reducing SD’s parliamentary group to 70 members, signaling internal instability and weakening their position ahead of the election
Sweden Democrats (SD) drops to 11%11%
Two Sweden Democrats MPs resign from the party, reducing SD’s parliamentary group to 70 members, signaling internal instability and weakening their position ahead of the election
"Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 92%, followed by "Sweden Democrats (SD)" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" is "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sweden Democrats (SD)" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.1 million traded on “Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 92¢ for "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" in the "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 92% chance that "Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 92¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 8¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Sep 13, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner" market has a growing discussion of 8 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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