Ukraine's ongoing martial law, most recently extended by parliament through August 2, 2026, constitutionally bars national elections and keeps incumbent President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in office under Article 108 until a successor is sworn in. No scheduled vote, resignation announcement, or removal process exists before the June 30 resolution date, and Zelenskyy continues active diplomatic engagement, including recent NATO meetings and peace overtures. Trader consensus at 99.2% for "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of credible near-term catalysts for change. Remote scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an abrupt voluntary resignation, unforeseen health crisis, or rapid de-escalation enabling snap elections, though none appear imminent within the two-week window.