Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 25.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalations and stalled diplomatic efforts despite recent high-level signals. On April 30, Ukraine expanded drone strikes on Russian oil facilities like Tuapse amid ongoing Russian missile and drone barrages, underscoring persistent hostilities. President Putin's April 29 call with President Trump yielded a proposed May 9 Victory Day truce—unilateral and unreciprocated by Kyiv—following the failed Orthodox Easter ceasefire in mid-April, marred by mutual violation accusations. US-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere highlight maximalist positions on territory like Donbas, with no convergence; Russian offensives have stalled, but Ukrainian counterstrikes maintain momentum, dimming prospects for de-escalation before year's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
$14,502,614 Vol.
$14,502,614 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 25.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalations and stalled diplomatic efforts despite recent high-level signals. On April 30, Ukraine expanded drone strikes on Russian oil facilities like Tuapse amid ongoing Russian missile and drone barrages, underscoring persistent hostilities. President Putin's April 29 call with President Trump yielded a proposed May 9 Victory Day truce—unilateral and unreciprocated by Kyiv—following the failed Orthodox Easter ceasefire in mid-April, marred by mutual violation accusations. US-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere highlight maximalist positions on territory like Donbas, with no convergence; Russian offensives have stalled, but Ukrainian counterstrikes maintain momentum, dimming prospects for de-escalation before year's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$14,502,614End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 25.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalations and stalled diplomatic efforts despite recent high-level signals. On April 30, Ukraine expanded drone strikes on Russian oil facilities like Tuapse amid ongoing Russian missile and drone barrages, underscoring persistent hostilities. President Putin's April 29 call with President Trump yielded a proposed May 9 Victory Day truce—unilateral and unreciprocated by Kyiv—following the failed Orthodox Easter ceasefire in mid-April, marred by mutual violation accusations. US-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere highlight maximalist positions on territory like Donbas, with no convergence; Russian offensives have stalled, but Ukrainian counterstrikes maintain momentum, dimming prospects for de-escalation before year's end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$14,502,614End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 at just 25.5%, reflecting entrenched military escalations and stalled diplomatic efforts despite recent high-level signals. On April 30, Ukraine expanded drone strikes on Russian oil facilities like Tuapse amid ongoing Russian missile and drone barrages, underscoring persistent hostilities. President Putin's April 29 call with President Trump yielded a proposed May 9 Victory Day truce—unilateral and unreciprocated by Kyiv—following the failed Orthodox Easter ceasefire in mid-April, marred by mutual violation accusations. US-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere highlight maximalist positions on territory like Donbas, with no convergence; Russian offensives have stalled, but Ukrainian counterstrikes maintain momentum, dimming prospects for de-escalation before year's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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