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Richest person on December 31, 2026?

icon for Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Elon Musk 94%

Warren Buffett 1.3%

Jensen Huang 1.2%

Bernard Arnault <1%

Polymarket

$1,826,824 Vol.

Elon Musk 94%

Warren Buffett 1.3%

Jensen Huang 1.2%

Bernard Arnault <1%

Polymarket

$1,826,824 Vol.

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$147,944 Vol.

94%

icon for Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett

$87,592 Vol.

1%

icon for Jensen Huang

Jensen Huang

$176,197 Vol.

1%

icon for Bernard Arnault

Bernard Arnault

$364,773 Vol.

1%

icon for Larry Page

Larry Page

$142,188 Vol.

1%

icon for Larry Ellison

Larry Ellison

$55,855 Vol.

<1%

icon for Steve Ballmer

Steve Ballmer

$307,909 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sergey Brin

Sergey Brin

$80,402 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jeff Bezos

Jeff Bezos

$336,331 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mark Zuckerberg

Mark Zuckerberg

$127,632 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Elon Musk’s commanding lead in the richest-person market stems from his June 2026 SpaceX IPO, which propelled his combined Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI stakes past $1.1 trillion and created an unprecedented gap over rivals. Traders view this position as durable through year-end because of sustained momentum in autonomous vehicles, AI infrastructure, and aerospace valuations, sectors where Musk’s companies continue to set the pace. Historical patterns of rapid wealth growth during tech bull markets reinforce the consensus. An upset would demand an extraordinary reversal, such as a steep Tesla selloff, major regulatory setbacks, or an unexpected multibillion-dollar surge from competitors like Jensen Huang or Larry Page—scenarios currently priced at very low odds amid favorable industry tailwinds.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$1,826,824
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Elon Musk’s commanding lead in the richest-person market stems from his June 2026 SpaceX IPO, which propelled his combined Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI stakes past $1.1 trillion and created an unprecedented gap over rivals. Traders view this position as durable through year-end because of sustained momentum in autonomous vehicles, AI infrastructure, and aerospace valuations, sectors where Musk’s companies continue to set the pace. Historical patterns of rapid wealth growth during tech bull markets reinforce the consensus. An upset would demand an extraordinary reversal, such as a steep Tesla selloff, major regulatory setbacks, or an unexpected multibillion-dollar surge from competitors like Jensen Huang or Larry Page—scenarios currently priced at very low odds amid favorable industry tailwinds.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$1,826,824
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Richest person on December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elon Musk" at 94%, followed by "Warren Buffett" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Richest person on December 31, 2026?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" is "Elon Musk" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Warren Buffett" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.