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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

icon for Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 38.8%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 6.0%

Donald Trump Jr. 2.6%

Polymarket

$598,013,605 Vol.

J.D. Vance 38.8%

Marco Rubio 20.8%

Tucker Carlson 6.0%

Donald Trump Jr. 2.6%

Polymarket

$598,013,605 Vol.

icon for J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance

$12,567,615 Vol.

39%

icon for Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio

$8,395,655 Vol.

21%

icon for Tucker Carlson

Tucker Carlson

$10,783,514 Vol.

6%

icon for Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump Jr.

$7,587,349 Vol.

3%

icon for Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis

$12,984,012 Vol.

2%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$7,680,348 Vol.

2%

icon for Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy

$14,531,948 Vol.

2%

icon for Thomas Massie

Thomas Massie

$3,551,474 Vol.

2%

icon for Glenn Youngkin

Glenn Youngkin

$6,618,055 Vol.

1%

icon for Tulsi Gabbard

Tulsi Gabbard

$11,792,834 Vol.

1%

icon for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$13,974,571 Vol.

1%

icon for Rand Paul

Rand Paul

$17,556,690 Vol.

1%

icon for Marjorie Taylor Greene

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$5,614,694 Vol.

1%

icon for Ivanka Trump

Ivanka Trump

$6,615,581 Vol.

1%

icon for Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz

$16,081,311 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$27,181,468 Vol.

1%

icon for Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley

$8,457,710 Vol.

1%

icon for Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik

$24,571,234 Vol.

1%

icon for Eric Trump

Eric Trump

$6,584,193 Vol.

1%

icon for Greg Abbott

Greg Abbott

$18,651,505 Vol.

1%

icon for Brian Kemp

Brian Kemp

$15,940,369 Vol.

1%

icon for Josh Hawley

Josh Hawley

$18,423,803 Vol.

1%

icon for John Thune

John Thune

$32,489,281 Vol.

1%

icon for Kim Kardashian

Kim Kardashian

$26,580,772 Vol.

1%

icon for Matt Gaetz

Matt Gaetz

$17,738,056 Vol.

1%

icon for Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$30,205,375 Vol.

1%

icon for Katie Britt

Katie Britt

$27,136,792 Vol.

1%

icon for Tom Brady

Tom Brady

$29,851,107 Vol.

1%

icon for Steve Bannon

Steve Bannon

$20,011,803 Vol.

1%

icon for Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth

$5,802,843 Vol.

1%

icon for Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds

$39,787,820 Vol.

1%

icon for Erika Kirk

Erika Kirk

$15,284,367 Vol.

1%

icon for Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem

$32,446,527 Vol.

1%

icon for Joe Kent

Joe Kent

$5,170,919 Vol.

1%

icon for Mike Pence

Mike Pence

$39,584,421 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his high-profile congressional hearings this week defending Trump administration health reforms, budget cuts, and chronic disease initiatives, enhancing his outsider appeal aligned with MAGA priorities. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 39% after recent odds declines linked to foreign policy challenges, including stalled Iran negotiations where he played no visible role. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sits at 21%, lifted by a strong 35% CPAC straw poll in late March and donor enthusiasm signaled to President Trump, though he has pledged not to challenge Vance. Term-limited Trump’s endorsement looms as the pivotal factor in this open primary field ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$598,013,605
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads trader consensus at 49% implied probability for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, buoyed by his high-profile congressional hearings this week defending Trump administration health reforms, budget cuts, and chronic disease initiatives, enhancing his outsider appeal aligned with MAGA priorities. Vice President J.D. Vance follows at 39% after recent odds declines linked to foreign policy challenges, including stalled Iran negotiations where he played no visible role. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sits at 21%, lifted by a strong 35% CPAC straw poll in late March and donor enthusiasm signaled to President Trump, though he has pledged not to challenge Vance. Term-limited Trump’s endorsement looms as the pivotal factor in this open primary field ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$598,013,605
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $598 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.