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Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

icon for Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Politics·US Election

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance 38.8%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 6.0%

Donald Trump Jr. 3.3%

Polymarket

$598,320,805 Vol.

J.D. Vance 38.8%

Marco Rubio 20.6%

Tucker Carlson 6.0%

Donald Trump Jr. 3.3%

Polymarket

$598,320,805 Vol.

icon for J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance

$12,568,567 Vol.

39%

icon for Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio

$8,395,984 Vol.

21%

icon for Tucker Carlson

Tucker Carlson

$10,785,401 Vol.

6%

icon for Donald Trump Jr.

Donald Trump Jr.

$7,619,071 Vol.

3%

icon for Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis

$12,984,479 Vol.

2%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$7,680,695 Vol.

2%

icon for Vivek Ramaswamy

Vivek Ramaswamy

$14,532,097 Vol.

2%

icon for Thomas Massie

Thomas Massie

$3,553,894 Vol.

2%

icon for Glenn Youngkin

Glenn Youngkin

$6,618,208 Vol.

1%

icon for Tulsi Gabbard

Tulsi Gabbard

$11,795,150 Vol.

1%

icon for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$13,974,963 Vol.

1%

icon for Rand Paul

Rand Paul

$17,557,871 Vol.

1%

icon for Marjorie Taylor Greene

Marjorie Taylor Greene

$5,616,846 Vol.

1%

icon for Ivanka Trump

Ivanka Trump

$6,616,579 Vol.

1%

icon for Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz

$16,083,057 Vol.

1%

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$27,183,273 Vol.

1%

icon for Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley

$8,460,506 Vol.

1%

icon for Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik

$24,571,742 Vol.

1%

icon for Eric Trump

Eric Trump

$6,585,611 Vol.

1%

icon for Greg Abbott

Greg Abbott

$18,653,688 Vol.

1%

icon for Brian Kemp

Brian Kemp

$15,943,373 Vol.

1%

icon for Josh Hawley

Josh Hawley

$18,425,521 Vol.

1%

icon for John Thune

John Thune

$32,489,737 Vol.

1%

icon for Kim Kardashian

Kim Kardashian

$26,583,065 Vol.

1%

icon for Matt Gaetz

Matt Gaetz

$17,739,760 Vol.

1%

icon for Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$30,207,947 Vol.

1%

icon for Katie Britt

Katie Britt

$27,139,939 Vol.

1%

icon for Tom Brady

Tom Brady

$29,852,705 Vol.

1%

icon for Steve Bannon

Steve Bannon

$20,014,459 Vol.

1%

icon for Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth

$5,805,243 Vol.

1%

icon for Byron Donalds

Byron Donalds

$39,790,408 Vol.

1%

icon for Erika Kirk

Erika Kirk

$15,286,315 Vol.

1%

icon for Kristi Noem

Kristi Noem

$32,448,374 Vol.

1%

icon for Joe Kent

Joe Kent

$5,171,611 Vol.

1%

icon for Mike Pence

Mike Pence

$39,585,838 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 39% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 21%, amid post-Trump term limits opening the field to administration insiders. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his high-profile HHS role advancing the MAHA agenda, a April 4 midterm travel push to rally GOP base support, and March family confirmation of his "definite" 2028 plans, boosting his appeal to anti-establishment voters despite polls favoring Vance. Vance's position softens on Middle East war concerns and midterm focus, while Rubio surges via a March 30 CPAC straw poll win (35%) and donor backing. Divergence from April polls underscores market emphasis on early momentum ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$598,320,805
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% implied probability to secure the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at 39% and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 21%, amid post-Trump term limits opening the field to administration insiders. RFK Jr.'s lead reflects his high-profile HHS role advancing the MAHA agenda, a April 4 midterm travel push to rally GOP base support, and March family confirmation of his "definite" 2028 plans, boosting his appeal to anti-establishment voters despite polls favoring Vance. Vance's position softens on Middle East war concerns and midterm focus, while Rubio surges via a March 30 CPAC straw poll win (35%) and donor backing. Divergence from April polls underscores market emphasis on early momentum ahead of 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$598,320,805
End Date
Nov 7, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" has generated $598.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.